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  #1  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:08 AM
netstorm netstorm is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 902
Default $100nl: I river my set, but some draws got there aswell

Villain in this hand is 70/30/1.6 over about 650 hands. I had a lot of notes on him

He would do stuff like floating T high flops, but folding to bets as low as 1/4 on the river.
He'd call off 2 barrels with any draws, including gutshots and sucker straight draws.
He would bet river when checked to if he missed his draw

However, he would check behind river when he had any showdown value (floating on a 35AA turn, checking behind river with 99)
besides this, he only went to showdown 23%, and won 53% of em.
Also, I had not seem him raise any rivers vs. me this session (120 hands)

Given these reads, do I call or shove here?

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $96.13
CO: $181.10
BTN: $9.32
Hero (SB): $116.39
BB: $119.40
UTG: $57.21

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP calls $1, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, BB calls $4, MP folds

Flop: ($11) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, BB calls $7

Turn: ($25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $38</font>
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  #2  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:18 AM
Sciolist Sciolist is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: London
Posts: 4,135
Default Re: $100nl: I river my set, but some draws got there aswell

We essentially put him on a bluff or a big hand here. It's hard to imagine him going for a value raise on the river with JQ or 33 or something (he appears to play more carefully on the river). I'd therefore call
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  #3  
Old 11-14-2007, 11:19 AM
Igloo9 Igloo9 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 168
Default Re: $100nl: I river my set, but some draws got there aswell

This is a tough decision - I'm leaning towards shove because of your check on the turn - he may think his two pair is the nuts after you show weakness. dont put him on flush, although possible. although this guys passive, I've seen may times these players (70/30) make really weird plays.
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