a couple hand swap BvB hands

[efficacy]

HAND 1

no reads

Ongame converter
Button ($53)
Hero ($437.25)
BB ($252)
CO ($45.50)

ANTES/BLINDS
Hero posts blind ($2.50), BB posts blind ($5).


PRE-FLOP : Hero has 8 8
CO folds, Button folds, Hero bets $7.50, BB calls $5.

FLOP: 3 J K
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5.

TURN: 7
Hero bets $10, BB calls $10.

RIVER: 9
Hero

---------------------------------------------------------

HAND 2

reads: villain runs about 51/10/1 and bluffs alot. I've seen him 3 barrel donk bluff random dry brds out of BB but he also donks flop when he hits top pair ace.

Ongame converter
Button ($512.50)
SB ($60)
Hero ($316.75)
CO ($302)

ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($2.50), Hero posts blind ($5).


PRE-FLOP : Hero has A 6
CO folds, Button folds, SB calls $2.50, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5.

FLOP: 2 8 8
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5.

TURN: 8
SB checks, Hero

Who likes check behind turn and raise any 6 or ace on the river, call all other river cards?

[yourface]

hand 1 c/c river
we are most likely not a favourite but I expect to see some cheese bluffs enough of the time + villain prob checks behind some better hands

hand 2 bet for value

[milesdyson]

first one is lame. I dont know what to do

second one seems not close.

[wray]

agree, c/c, b/

[efficacy]

Ehhh... I just realized that all of villains pair outs are good in hand two. I was thinking they were tainted because of our flush draw. I am dumb. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
first one is lame. I dont know what to do

second one seems not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

why is it not close? if we can induce a bluff more than 50% of the time, then checking the turn is better. what assumption should we make about the villain's bluffing frequency on the river? from the description in the OP it seems it might easily be more than 50%.

[milesdyson]

i always feel like i ask you for the math. every time someone throws a number out there it tilts me. are you just assuming he c/f every unpaired hand here?

0.12 - p(he hits 6-outer)
0.88 - p(he doesn't)
x - bluff frequency

0.12*-4 + 0.88*x*1 = 0
0.88*x = 0.48
x = 0.55

that's when it's breakeven. so if
1. his range is pure 6 outers
2. he always folds them on turn
3. he bluffs river 55% of the time he's unpaired
then your decision doesn't matter

are these your assumptions?

my math could easily be wrong because i'm tilting now.

[rzk]

don't tilt, your math is perfect [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] if he bluffs 55% of the time he doesn't hit a pair, that means he'll be bluffing 55%*0.88=48% of all cases. my 50% figure refers to all cases, i guess i got it off by 2% 'cuz i did it in my head.

[inferno]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1 c/c river
we are most likely not a favourite but I expect to see some cheese bluffs enough of the time + villain prob checks behind some better hands

hand 2 bet for value

[/ QUOTE ]