|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
What is the better line in this situation. This NFL game tonight. Sea is up 17-0 at half. The halftime over/under line is 17 to open and the halftime spread is -4. Now Im wondering what the "better" lines is here. 17u -101 or 17.5u -125. I feel like there is a lot to consider here, especially since its a 2h line. Im assuming I have to consider the 1h score?? Meaning how often a game lands on 34. How much is a 17 2h worth with a spread of 4. I have no clue where to start, maybe Imben has a database for 2h totals? Thanks.
Rush Edit: Im more concerned with how to determine which is the better line in the future, on lines similar to this (not just 17), not this one in particular. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
The half point is obviously going to be worth a lot more in a halftime spread than a full game, and even more in a low scoring game like this...but I doubt it's worth 24 cents. Just my instincts talking. I doubt you're going to find anyone with relevant data to help you out here.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
I don't think there's any definitive right answer. All we can do is offer our best guess, so this is NOT a question for "the math guys".
Here are some things to consider: --Yes, a half-point is worth more in a halftime bet than in a game. If you guessed that it's worth twice as much, I wouldn't argue with you. --17 and 20 are the "key numbers" in NFL halftimes, probably as strong as the 3 in NFL sides. I'm pretty sure Wong's book addresses this, and I don't feel like dusting off my copy to look for you. Sorry, I'm just a lousy person. So getting off the 17 is worth much, much more than getting off of, say, 19. Bottom line: Yes, I'd pay 24 cents to get off the 17--but not much more than that. And no, the first half score does not indicate how likely the second half is to land on the number--unless you saw something in the way the game has been played up to that point that makes you think the oddsmakers grossly erred when they made the over/under for the game. For example, if the game had a high total coming in, but neither team can make a first down, AND you think from watching that's not just a byproduct of variance**, AND the halftime total isn't adjusted too much to take than into account, THEN I would say that the second half probably won't land on the key number. ** = When Peyton Manning throws four picks, and the Indy special teams allow two TD returns, all in the first half...that's an example of variance. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's any definitive right answer. All we can do is offer our best guess, so this is NOT a question for "the math guys". [/ QUOTE ] Who comes up with the "best guess"? Answer: the "math guys". |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
I'll answer this question during the offseason--that's when I plan on figuring it out. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Question for the Math guys, I\'m lost.
Ill be looking forward to that rjp. Are you gonna be doing just football? I was wondering about basketball halves as well, though I think they are a little easier.
|
|
|