Question on Variance & judging your play

[hasuuser]

Really nice topic and i feel the same way. Its not just about losing flips tho. When you lose flips , you can at least see if you ve made the right play or not, however its way more complicated then that.

Let's say you 3-bet light or bluff bet the river. You are gona get called and lose some % of a time. Lets say villain is pretty unknown and you need him to fold 60% of a time to make this play profitable. When you run bad and get called a lot in this spot you start tightening up and in turn passing up the +EV spots, because you start thinking he folds less then 60 here.