Hand Reading Practice

[doppelganger]

Grunching:

i. Someone raising 15% overall and playing more tightly from UTG should have a very narrow and fairly easily definable range. (Unless they are mixing it up for some reason.) I would put him generally on the same opening range I use, possibly dropping one or 2 of the bottom of my range since he's a little tighter than me. Let's say: 44+,AJs+,AQ+,KQs

2. Smooth calling in position eliminates any hand worth 3-betting so I would assume you're set/straight/flush mining or have a possibly dominated hand like AQ/AJ that you want to play cautiously. Let's say: 22-88, 46s-TQs, 56s-TJs, AJ,AQ

3. That is the same range I would flat call with on the button against a TAG's UTG raise.


Edit for Flop: Ok, I think as others have said that he could be feigning weakness intending to get raised w/ a monster or a monster draw. Your flat call probably narrows down your original range to PP's that missed and draws.

[ICMoney]

I think your hand looks like KQ, QJ/JT, T9/TT, 87, 88.

Hands listed in weight I would give to your range (most to least).

[z28dreams]

Grunching:

Preflop HIS range is way wider than everyone is giving credit. I've tried tightening up lately, and am running around 20/17

With a 17 PFR, I'm raising the following UTG:
- any pair
- all Axs combinations
- AT+
- KJ+ (sometimes fold KJo depending on table conditions)
- maybe 25% of the time open with 87s-JTs, rest of the time fold

Your calling range for being on the BTN is pretty big if you've observed that he's playing taggy. Any pair, any suited connectors (including broadways), Axs. Not sure if you would cold call KJo type hands here - I usually don't.

With a TAG, it's almost impossible to put anyone on a range from a flop lead, because it can be a c-bet very often. With your flat call though, your range narrows down a bit.

Your cold call means:
- you didn't hit a big draw (K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A:club,J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) . You'd almost certainly raise that here.
- Big pocket pairs are out, you didn't r/r preflop and didn't raise here
- Sets you'd probably raise, but you COULD have cold called here. Why? 2 reasons: (1) An UTG raise is far less likely to have a drawing hand than a LP raise, so you don't have to worry about him catching up as much. (2) he's playing aggressive post flop, and you can probably get another bet out of him with air
- You may also have a hand like TT, which just wants to peel another street vs. a c-bet
- all naked flush draws just cold call here (though, a lot of them would have hit gutshot+FD or oesfd) or pair+FD).
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7:club has gutshot+fd, 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has just a draw and is likely, 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as well.... etc.
Also note that 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are out of your range because those cards are already on the board.

In short, I think your range is:
very likely:
8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],TT
less likely:
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (non-paired), 44, 99, JJ, QJ, KJ
even less likely:
AJ

[matrix]

some good responses so far [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'll post my thinking once the thread is done and I post some results.

Hero (BTN): $54.19
UTG: $110.76


Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.25</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $2.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $2</font>, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($9.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $4.50</font>, Hero ???

OK so I gots the 78hh.

Here is the turn minus my action.

What should Hero do in this spot?

three new questions:

i) What is his Range
ii) What is my Equity vs his range?
iii) How can I Maximise value?

to answer iii) we needs a plan for what to do on this and on the next street (depending on what we do on this one)

Also some more reads - at this point in the hand I looked more carefully at Villains street by street AF #'s

they are roughly Flop AF - 4.5 Turn - 2.5 River - 7

I think his hand is pretty face up at this point and I have it pinned down to at most 6 possibles 1 of them I think he has ~75% of the time.

Given that I haven't noticed him getting out of line with CBet sizes yet - and his flop CB was oddly small this time so that it stuck out I'd also guess that that tells us something as well.

other comments on Heros/Villains play appreciated - especially from newer posters.

[thac]

His range is pretty polarized towards air/monsters, and we have a draw that is pretty hard to hit but gets paid off well on a different board.

You have roughly 16% chance (quick math using the multiples of 2 or w/e that's called) of hitting your double-gutter, but on this board, 4 of those 8 cards will complete a flush draw, which he may have with his weakish betting (blocking bet theory I guess). There are also times when he has KQ and we lose to a higher straight when the red 10 comes.

So lets look at his range. The range I gave him in my earlier post was this: "22+, ATs+, AJo+, maybe random suited connectors to mix it up." That was after his smallish c-bet on the flop. After he bets the turn with his small AF on the turn compared to flop and river, I would say his range narrows down to 44, 99, JJ+, AJo, AJs, ATss, AQss, AKss, ATcc, AQcc, AKcc, and possibly JT, JQ or KQss/cc.

Out of all of these hands, I don't think he's folding many to a raise, and we're calling 4.5 into a pot of 13.75, which means we need roughly 3:1 or 25% equity here, which we don't. But lets look at the implied odds just for the hell of it. We're calling 4.50 with the chance to win what's left in the stacks on the river, which is $45.44.

But lets assume out of that range given above that he's only betting and calling a river raise with his sets, overpairs and AJ. That's only 2.9% of his 5.5% range (numbers taken via PokerStove). So say he bet's ~9 on the river and calls a raise to 30, we win every time we hit our straight that doesn't complete his flush draw or higher straight. So lets say we have 6 clean outs (2 clean outs and 6 "half" outs). We win a ~$70 pot 12% of the time, and give up/lose the other 88% of the time.

I'm rambling, and am probably incorrect, since you say there's only 6 possible hands he can have, but I just don't think we have enough implied odds given this board, so I'd just fold.

[z28dreams]

I think anything but a fold here is FPS.

[ICMoney]

I think his range is KQo(40),KQs(25),TT(50),88(25),T9s(30),A9s.
You have 18% against this.

I think this is either a raise or fold.
If you raise he will fold about 50% of the time (Th9h,Td9d,88,Ah9h,Ad9d,TT).

I think his mostly likely holding is A9s, followed by KQ.

A9 is not paying if you hit. KQ is going to pwn you if you hit your ten, but fold if he misses.

I would make a 3/4psb and prob shut down.

Note: I'm still tying to figure out how to use weights in the Hold’em Ranger prog.
Cals might be off.

[subs]

id like to comment on his preflop play... i see this kind of raise a fair amount and its usually TT/JJ or AQs

[C4LL4W4Y]

grunch...preflop

1.) he has TT+, AQ+
2.) you have 88 thru JJ, AQ+, and some sc's like 9Ts, JTs, 89s. i assume you'd 3bet QQ-AA, and balance out your range by 3betting 22-66/77 on occasion as well.
3.) pretty much your range, it's hard to call with pp's lower than that because this guy is rarely going to pay off your set unless he hits the flop pretty hard.

[C4LL4W4Y]

bleh no wonder my stats are pretty weak tight lately.