#1
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50NL AQ tough spot
Hi
villain is 13.5/9/3 over 460 hands Seems pretty solid in general, dont really have any reads on him, I think he's a multitabler. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) UTG ($87.65) MP ($187.20) Hero ($57.80) SB ($50.25) BB ($49.25) Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.25. Flop: ($3.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $9</font>, Hero calls $6. Turn: ($21.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $13.5</font>, Hero calls $13.50. River: ($48.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $25 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $25. Final Pot: $98.75 |
#2
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Re: 50NL AQ tough spot
I fold turn here. His stats dont indicate that hes going crazy with AJ. The other possibility is he is on a flush draw or straight draw, but again, someone who plays 13% of his hands probably doesnt have 87. I just think youre beat here much more often than not.
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#3
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Re: 50NL AQ tough spot
given his stats, I can find a fold on the flop, I'm folding the turn fo sure....
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#4
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Re: 50NL AQ tough spot
I either fold the flop or shove the turn
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#5
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Re: 50NL AQ tough spot
The flop call is marginal, considering there is really only 1 or 2 turn cards that will make you like your hand more, and a whole bunch that will look scary.
Villain seems really nitty, so a check/raise on the flop is a pretty strong signal. I might still call the flop to see if he shows weakness on the turn or hope for a Q or another A. When he leads the turn for > 1/2 pot, he has a hand. This isn't a draw putting out a blocking bet. You have to ask yourself, does he bet anything that TP2K can beat? The answer is most likely no. He flat called PF, so this is most likely a 2-pair/set hand, probably 66, 99, or A9s. If you've been stealing a lot and have a pretty aggro image, villain might (but not often) make this play with AJ. Doesn't happen often enough to warrant a turn call. By the river, I probably make this call. Let's consider his range to be: 66,99,AKs,AKo,A9s,A6s. Poker stove shows our equity on the river to be: Board: 9h 6c Ac 7s Qc equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 64.653% 64.65% 00.00% 343238 0.00 { AdQs } Hand 1: 35.347% 35.35% 00.00% 187658 0.00 { 99, 66, AKs, A9s, A6s, AKo } So, by the river, we're actually ahead of his range, definitely enough to call getting 3 to 1. Here's how our hand looks on the turn: Board: 9h 6c Ac 7s equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 06.015% 06.01% 00.00% 29446 0.00 { AdQs } Hand 1: 93.985% 93.99% 00.00% 460117 0.00 { 99, 66, AKs, A9s, A6s, AKo } As you can see, we only have 6% equity on the turn, making a call terrible. Even if you add AJ into his range, our equity is still only 34%, so a call would still be incorrect. Hope that helped. |
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