Am i way off here (-ev?)

[Salmon]

You need to get a better handle on how to calculate EV. There's no such thing as a "lock" and like someone else said, if one bet were a lock, why not just bet it and not bother with the parlay? The truth is, unless there's some correlation between those two events, if you were to make this type of bet many, many times, the money you lost would outweigh the money you won.