HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]

[PrimeNut]

Chip, there are two flaws to your logic on the second hand.

1) He has no bluff potential against an all-in. He must go to showdown to win the pot. To complete with a hand worse than the all-in's ten high would be silly. Granted maniacs, especially in a free-roll, sometimes do silly things.

2) Even a silly maniac can be dealt (9-9-)A. In fact, he will be dealt (9-9-)A only a little bit less often then (T+8-)A. So even if you think he'd play (T+8-)A, you have to average the two simulations.

I would fold third. You are a ahead of (T-8+)A but behind (8-8-)A. Let the maniac have this one, take his chips away from him later when you get a 3 card 7.

Definitely do not raise 7th.