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#1
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Re: 50NL read these hands
This seems interesting, and I really want to work on my hand reading so thought I'd see what I could come up with.
MP looks like they have a wide range, though then again you don't have many hands there. Still, based on what we have, looks like they get involved with a fairly wide range. So they open-raise in MP...looks like PP, probably a middle one or bigger (77 ^? I think they'd limp anything smaller), big SC's (JT ^? looking at them they might have limped T9 or smaller), obviously AK/AQ, probably AJ also. Also there's the possibility of a suited A, approx A8/9?. Maybe even A8/9o though that's a bit more speculative and seems unlikely in calling the re-raise OOP. Button 3bets them..unless they're doing it light it looks like a big PP, like 99^ maybe? , AK, AQ, AJ, KQs. If it's light it's a bit wider obviously, but that's difficult for me to say without being at the table so I'm going to go for my more simple version of events :P MP bets here, just under half the pot. Having not been at the table I can't really say if this is just a c-bet or what. It's an odd size for a C-bet though unless they're really bad. I'm inclined to think it's more likely they hit the flop or thought they were still good and are possibly trying to get value. So we can narrow down the range a bit. 88, 99, maybe 98s, KK, AK,KQ, A8s, A9s, maybe one of the bigger PP's - JJ, QQ. Calling the raise confirms it's probably not a c-bet. The button raised, so either they thought it was a c-bet and were playing back at the other player, or they thought they were still good. If that's the case the only parts of their range that fit are 99, AK, KQs, maybe QQ^. That's quite a narrow range so they might well just be playing back at MP. MP checks the turn. So either it was a c-bet, they have an OK hand and don't want to bet out against what might be a big hand, or they have a monster and want to C/R. Button then checks. Looks like they might well have just been playing back at MP. Either that or they have JJ or another OK but not huge hand that's been scared by overcards. So it looks like nothing of note or a marginal hand. The 9 on the river gets MP to push. At this point we have them on '88, 99, maybe 98s, KK, AK,KQ, A8s, A9s, maybe one of the bigger PP's - JJ, QQ'. I think we can narrow this down further to 88, 99, 98s, A8, A9, and maybe AK, KQ. It feels like they have something, so I'm inclined towards this range. They could just be trying to throw out a bluff since button checked the turn, but the size of the flop bet and that they push OOP on a paired board makes me think this is less likely to be the case. Button folds to the push, looks like they might have had some small-ish PP, or other hand that was marginal here, or were playing back with air. So in the face of seeing their RR get called OOP PF, then their flop raise get called, a possible attempt to C/R the turn and then a push on the river it looks to them like they're up against a monster. So they fold. Sorry if this is too long, I'm not great at hand reading so I thought I'd try and be thorough. Note there are some assumptions here that I make in the absence of more info - like the 3 betting light possibility etc. Feedback on this analysis would be appreciated. |
#2
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Re: 50NL read these hands
button has JJ or AQs
MP could have a lot of stuff, KQs, TJs, 88, 99 |
#3
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Re: 50NL read these hands
Button has AK IMO, maybe QQ. He was not comfortable his flop raise was called. I dont think a player with those stats is raising JJ or AQs on that flop.
MP has a set or a slowplayed AA. |
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