Is this an arb bet?

ItalianFX · #1 03-18-2006, 03:58 PM

NHL:

Pinnacle

Toronto at +181 ($100 to win $181)
NY Rangers at -196

Bowmans

Toronto at +1.5 -155
NY Rangers at -1.5 +135 ($100 to win $135)

If Toronto wins, I win $181 and lose $100 = $81
If NY Rangers win, I lose 100$ and win $135 = $35

If NY Rangers win by 1, then I lose both, right? So my only risk is the NY Rangers not covering the spread.

B00T · #2 03-18-2006, 04:17 PM

this is an awful bet to make

the chances of rangers winning by exactly 1 happens often enough where the return on the other bets make it VERY unprofitable

AncientPC · #3 03-19-2006, 12:35 PM

You are risking 200 to win (81+35)/2=58.

If Rangers winning by 1 happens more than 58/200=29% of the time this is a -EV bet.

ItalianFX · #4 03-19-2006, 07:44 PM

Let's say there is no spread. Does it now become a good arb bet?

mebedaman · #5 03-20-2006, 01:12 AM

You're catching on.....albeit pretty slowly...

craig · #6 03-20-2006, 01:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're catching on.....albeit pretty slowly...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, two posts is pretty slow, huh? In fact, we shouldn't let people in the forum who don't know what an arb is. </end sarcasm>

craig

AncientPC · #7 03-20-2006, 02:50 AM

If there was no spread and you were getting +181/+135 on opposite teams this is a ~28% arb bet.

ItalianFX · #8 03-20-2006, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're catching on.....albeit pretty slowly...

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I didn't know there was a time limit

Aegist · #9 03-22-2006, 06:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're catching on.....albeit pretty slowly...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, two posts is pretty slow, huh? In fact, we shouldn't let people in the forum who don't know what an arb is. </end sarcasm>

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL

Check out http://www.surebetbookies.com if you are trying to get your head around sports arbitrage. Its got a really straight forward guide to help explain it all.