24+2: 1st hour. Over pair can I find a fold here?

[tomek322]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $40/$80
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $4057
UTG+1: $2200
Hero: $1800
MP2: $2475
MP3: $4735
CO: $9060
Button: $6250
SB: $5120
BB: $3303

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $200</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($640, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $640</font>

What is his range? Are we folding with the live hand behind?

[hamnegger]

draws sets 88-99jjmaybe. i send it in

[ChipSpeak]

Ugly spot huh, any reads on BB? some will lead any rag flops like this with air. That's a tough a flop to see the bb lead a psb at you.
Range is tough without reads, sets with that bet on this flop are rare, I throw them away. 77-99, JJ and I'm seeing QQ here lately are possibilities (monsters in closet), Axdd, &gt;56 &amp; 2P if loose, air...
We could be behind quite a few draws here, he just showed us he likes his hand enough to never fold, we can't call off &gt;1/3 of our stack, we consider the player yet to act, I think I can fold here. I see the other hand, it's a scared bet and the chances are, we're ahead right now. The fact we're behind a few draws, a player yet to act and a bet from hell flying at us that we can't maneuver on without committing our stack, this adds up to a fold for me.

[tomek322]

No many reads... but we have been very active.

[ChipSpeak]

Maybe I've turned into a fold EV nit, but I hate committing my entire stack feeling I have no chance of villain folding with these hands, especially on that flop at an active table. He turns over A5,A2,AJ+ dd, 56, 2P.. were not happy about it, I hate to use the better spots bit .. but if the shoe fits..

[markbris]

I def send it in here, I dont see myself folding here much at all, esp if we have been active.

[tomek322]

[ QUOTE ]
draws sets 88-99jjmaybe. i send it in

[/ QUOTE ]
this is actually what i was thinking... if he flopped a set, than god bless. I shipped it in... he called with 99.

[markbris]

Yea I think his range is like 77-99,maybe JJ but doubtful plus sets and random flush draws.

[23Suited]

[ QUOTE ]
No many reads... but we have been very active.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Range is tough without reads, sets with that bet on this flop are rare, I throw them away. 77-99, JJ and I'm seeing QQ here lately are possibilities (monsters in closet), Axdd, &gt;56 &amp; 2P if loose, air...

[/ QUOTE ]

I basically agree with the above quote although I think JJ and QQ usually re-raise you here (agree with the monsters in closet comment though... so for good measure you might as well add KK and AA... although much rarer then JJ and QQ)... I did however come to a different conclusion and believe that I would have to get it in here for the 1800... I think that as the other poster said it is very unlikely that an unknown villian would put in a psb with the made str8 or a set here... especially since you are probably preety likely to c-bet this a reasonable amount of the time... not sure how loose you have been but he has no reason to believe you will even call... you are certain to fold overs here to a psb... he might assume he is value betting this entire range... 55, 77-99, 45s, 56s, Axs... which is such a huge portion of his range that I think Im gettin it all in here... against a normal unknown the worst case you will see him turn over here is Ad 5d , 4d 5d ... really you are forced to get it in here unless you can add to his range sets and str8s... with out knowing my opponent I dont think I can do that... It just seems like he wants you to go away or define that indeed you do have an overpair...

Edit: As far as the player to act behind you goes... I think you basically force him to call/shove a set (or the goofy made str8) and that is about it... I mean it goes PSB, then Shove (by PFR) and then he gets to act... he should atleast briefly consider folding 2-pair here since he really has committed nothing...

Side Note - I think you prob should have raised PF to atleast 240 which may have gotten 1 caller instead of 2... and saved you a bit of heartache... or at the very least made it more expensive for them to draw out on what is VERY likely the best hand at the moment...

[ChipSpeak]

Yeah, I think I change my mind here, just because I've been [censored] roasted finding QQ twice in two weeks, JJ yesterday, seems everyone playing these passive nowadays I dunno. That bet screams 77-99, or if he's loose the 2P hands.