AA gets screwed by turn - but rivers top set.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet turn
call river

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like betting the turn here at all. You turn your hand into a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf not at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

interested to hear your explanation here

[/ QUOTE ]as am i. not really seeing a hand we beat calling a reasonable turn bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess a lot of people think checking turn here is standard so I'll try to give some insight as to why betting is superior.

1)Your opponent is a 40/7/2. This guy is a huge station, as a general rule I will make super thin value bets vs them and NEVER 3bet them light/squeeze them light. Don't think your opponent plays any differently postflop when hes preflop stats are horrendous.

2) His calling range is so much wider than straights/2pair.
Here is a reasonable range for this guy
5x/10x/Jx/ANY pocket pair except 22-33./2pair type hands/fds.

This guy is horrible and will easily call with gut shots like J8 type hands and even pocket 4s. ANY flush draw is calling your turn bet and even higher pocket pairs. That range is > than his straight/2pair calling range. Basically getting one street of value with an overpair against a huge station is giving up a lot if you do it whenever the board gets "scary."

3) You can even bet some rivers profitably but not all of them. Any non diamond river that isn't a J/4/5/10 you can be betting for value.