(PCA Step 2 Sat) Vaporlocked with TT near bubble

[sapsuckah]

Top two get a Step 3 seat, 3rd and 4th get another Step 2 seat.

Reads: UTG lost a big hand to me and was down to 475, but then worked it back up to where it is... he had been pushing aggressively obv. SB seemed solid - very tight early and then very aggressive later. He would recognize that UTG is pushing way wide.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t3185)
Hero (t4485)
UTG (t1515)
Button (t4315)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1515</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t1415 -- HERO???

[sixfour]

Given your read it looks like SB may be calling a bit wider to try to get a stack to challenge for the top 2, so I jam over the top.

[Giulio01]

Looks like he's trying to get extra chip for bubble, you are probably out of his calling range if you push (top 2 payd, why risk a flip and bubble?). If solid, unless he's got a monster, he will fold.

He'll probably give you a walk and then fight for 2nd place hoping you push the other out.

[sapsuckah]

[ QUOTE ]
If solid, unless he's got a monster, he will fold.

He'll probably give you a walk and then fight for 2nd place hoping you push the other out.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seriously think he's folding after putting in nearly half his stack and getting better than 3.5:1? I thought the possibility of SB folding was incredibly remote, bordering on non-existent.

No, my question is more about my equity vs a wide pushing range and a questionably wide calling range and the sat bubble implications.

[Giulio01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If solid, unless he's got a monster, he will fold.

He'll probably give you a walk and then fight for 2nd place hoping you push the other out.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seriously think he's folding after putting in nearly half his stack and getting better than 3.5:1? I thought the possibility of SB folding was incredibly remote, bordering on non-existent.

No, my question is more about my equity vs a wide pushing range and a questionably wide calling range and the sat bubble implications.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even considering your question it's not a fact of odds - he'll get 3.5 odds or bubble, and you have to consider that you are in a sit with 2 seats payd.

If you think that the AI player has got a wide range and that SB is solid, then probably his call indicates a medium hand (if he looks decent, he knows that AI is loosening up), not a monster, and you are going to checkdown to the river. So call is + EV, but IMHO push is ++EV cause winning that you can even sitout and wait one of the 2 others bust, granting you a 95% seat.

[Sherman]

W/out doing the math, I shove FTW. The math isn't too hard though. Just need hand ranges for both.

Calculate your prob. of finishing in the top two if you fold in this spot (run UTG vs. SB's range). This is two calculations; one for when SB wins one for when UTG wins.

Calculate your prob. of finishing in the top two if you shove and lose in this spot (run your hand vs. UTG vs. SB). Two calculations again, one for UTG and one for SB.

Finally, the probability that you get a seat if you win is exactly equal to your equity in this hand.

Is the combined probability that you get a seat if you win/lose &gt; than if you fold?

I'm pretty sure it will be, but that is the math.

As a short-cut, think of it this way. There are 4 players left. That means you are ~50% to get a seat. You are the chip leader so give yourself some extra credit. Maybe 55%. I'd say that is the probability that you get a seat if you fold and UTG wins. Your probabilty goes up to ~70% if SB wins and you fold. Now you just need to know your probability of getting a seat in the "you move all in" scenarios.

Sherman

[sapsuckah]

Ok, Sherman, you threw down the math gauntlet... so here goes. I used a wide range for UTG and a tightish but not rock-tight range for SB. My ranges are:

UTG: 22+, A2+, K2+, Q7+, J9+, T9s
SB: 88+, AT+

My prize pool equity before the hand is 27.44% (based on 1st and 2nd getting 36.4% and 3rd and 4th getting 12%).

If I fold:
If UTG wins (34.4% of the time), my resulting equity is 26.83% * 34.4% = 9.22%
If SB wins (65.6%), my resulting equity is 27.8% * 65.6% = 18.23%

So if I fold, my overall equity would be 27.45% (identical to what I had before the hand started)


If I push:
Assume SB calls 100% of the time
If I win main and side (38.6%), my resulting equity is 36.4% (a win) * 38.6% = 14.05%
If SB wins main and side (39.6%), my resulting equity is 18.75% * 39.6% = 7.43%
If UTG wins main and I win side (10.9%), my resulting equity is 28.58% * 10.9% = 3.12%
If UTG wins main and SB wins side (10.9%), my resulting equity is 17.42% * 10.9 = 1.9%

So if I push, my overall equity would be 26.5%, or about 1% ($2.25) worse than if I had folded.

So it's close, but this looks like a fold based on these numbers.

Some questions:
- Do my ranges look OK? Should SB's range be tighter since he just called and didn't push to isolate? Or wider since he knows UTG is pushing very wide?
- Is my assumption that SB will call 100% of the time correct? Even if it's 95% of the time, that tiny bit of FE may skew this in favor of a push.
- Should there be any non-mathematical accommodation for the fact that winning this hand ends the tournament and eliminates a tough player?

Thanks all,

Matt

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
Some questions:
- Do my ranges look OK? Should SB's range be tighter since he just called and didn't push to isolate? Or wider since he knows UTG is pushing very wide?
- Is my assumption that SB will call 100% of the time correct? Even if it's 95% of the time, that tiny bit of FE may skew this in favor of a push.
- Should there be any non-mathematical accommodation for the fact that winning this hand ends the tournament and eliminates a tough player?


[/ QUOTE ]

1) generally wider. he may seem like he knows what hes doing, and he may, and yes, some players do this with AA/KK, but at this level it is more likely that he just isnt aware of appropriate reshoving ranges. I'd widen his range a bit, perhaps to something like 66+, AT+, KQs. Seems arbitrary but I think its a reasonable assumption.

2) no, its really not reasonable. with the idea that he may not be aware of "how to reshove", it also means that he can fold out a lot of his calling range here. A lot of players at this buy in again, call becuase of the strength of their hand and the fact that it doesnt merit a reshove in their mind, so they'd be folding to a shove behind with the idea that "you could only be on a super strong hand with that line" when holding the bottom of their ranges.

The above combined with the fact that this isnt a regular STT and a lot of players play scared when they decide to flat call here for tournament considerations makes his fold more than 0-5% IMO. arbitrary but more like upwards of 80% seems reasonable (meaning hed fold out as much as 15+% of the time.)

3) with higher blinds there are more reasons for these "non mathematical" accomodations, but yes, this may be used to your advantage in a close spot given the flatter payouts.

[sapsuckah]

Thanks... If he had pushed rather than flat-called, I would have opened up the range a bit. But a call from a good player made me tighten it up somewhat.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks... If he had pushed rather than flat-called, I would have opened up the range a bit. But a call from a good player made me tighten it up somewhat.

[/ QUOTE ]

not an unreasonable assumption, i included some more detail in my reply above though, check the edit.