(razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?

[RustyBrooks]

The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is from the latest FT "tip" by Ivey:
[ QUOTE ]
Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you’re making a smart move, but it doesn’t take into account who you’re playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you’re facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that’s something you can only develop by playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I see it, a tournament is a closed system. While making mathematically "correct" calls that will pay off in some future when you have played enough hands might make sense generally, if they pay off when you are playing a cash game long after you've lost the tournament, then using that system to make tournament decisions is not as reasonable as it seems to be.

I ask myself these questions: 1 - no matter how short the guy is - do I want to make him any richer? 2 - how good was this hand on 3rd? 3 - how do I feel about it now? 4 - do I have any good reason to call or am I just talking myself into something? 4 - am I protecting my stack?

I look at my HHs and justify bad calls all the time. For about ten seconds until I remember how much denial costs me in real money. I need real money. I might call this in a cash game, possibly. Not in a trny.

My question is - when you saw the 4, just instinctively, what did you feel you should do?

Remember the Prime Sklansky Directive: folding makes you money. Folding is profit.

[ceegee]

In a tornement I'm folding 5th only because I am clearly drawing to a 9 as my opponet bets there he is saying I'm drawing to at least a 7 or lower. Regardless of odds and chips You are usuallly behind here, and he has at least two more bets which is a good amount with these blinds. I don't mess around here and find a better spot to get my chips in.

[RustyBrooks]

Nope, he has one more bet, and a fraction of a bet. That's all - my final call on the end was 300 chips, as I recall, like .15bb.

1. to me his bet says "I'm getting all in, no matter what" - I have seen people turn over all kinds of garbage.
2. if he's perfect in the hole, I'm getting the right pot odds to call (yes, in a cash game... in a tournament, well, I guess that's why I'm asking)
3. as soon as I saw that Phil Ivey quote in the FTP email, I knew Praxising would be using it in a posting soon. It really does not apply here, I don't think. Losing 2.1bb more would hurt but this isn't NLHE and he didn't just push all in.

[cgrohman]

This is a must call. I agree witht he Ivey quote above but that doesnt really apply when the guy sticks in his last amount of money. Its done, its just math at that point.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
3. as soon as I saw that Phil Ivey quote in the FTP email, I knew Praxising would be using it in a posting soon. It really does not apply here, I don't think. Losing 2.1bb more would hurt but this isn't NLHE and he didn't just push all in.

[/ QUOTE ]His article wasn't about NLHE. Why does it apply here? Because all the talk here is about having the odds to call. The question you did not answer was: how did you feel when you saw the 4?

We do this and don't take into account the outcome. But in trny play the outcome matters a lot more then in a cash game. IMO - one last time - you should probably have folded 3rd, you should fold 5th. How did you feel when you saw the 4 and how did it turn out?

[RustyBrooks]

I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

How did I see when I saw the 4? like seeing a river. After he bet 5th he had 1bb left. I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.

If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.

So, 2/3 times I lose an extra 2bb. 1/3 times I gain the whole pot, about 6.8bb. I won't be in good shape if I lose, but I'm treading water and I need the chips. Yes, yes the chips I win are worth less than the ones I lose. But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.

But this is actually the *worst case*. And far more commonly I'm looking at a coinflip, and once there's this much in the pot I flip every single time. If it's a coinflip, he's basically saying, here's your money back, now lets flip for 2bb plus a little extra dead money, and if I lose, I'm out of the tournament.

Also obviously I reserve the right to fold 6th, and he has no such luxury, really. So calling here I'm really only gambling 1bb some of the time, some of the time on 6th I'm gambling 1 more.

The outcome of this hand is immaterial to the question at hand. But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.

[RustyBrooks]

In case it wasn't clear, the odds dictate I should call even if he has the WORST hand for me that he could have.

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it?
3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5___folds
Hero: A 3 4___raises
Seat 3: xx xx K___brings-in___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 6___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 5___folds

You don't have a single card on the board and two of your 5s and a 6 are out. You are the third short-stack and you only really have a couple serious hands you can play. Seat 7 did not call the BI, he raised in the face of three hands with better cards showing. By your own admission, you were not thinking about his stack size. You have a lousy board, a raiser in front of you, no big stack to take chances with.

Yeah, you fold. I'd have folded.


[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.

If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.

[/ QUOTE ] Uh-huh. But in a tournament, you don't have time to find that theoretical winning time that is going to make up, in some very small way, for your two losses. And that winning one, whenever it is, will NOT make up for the equity you have in this tournament.

[ QUOTE ]
But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.

[/ QUOTE ] Then you let the big stacks do that unless you have a very strong hand and you don't, regardless of it being three wheels.

[ QUOTE ]
But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.

[/ QUOTE ]If it's all about odds, and you know how to calculate odds, and the outcome didn't matter, and you really believe this - why did you bother posting it in the first place?

Nevermind. This is your game. Go thou forth and conquer. I would be completely delighted to see you at the final table tonight with 7 other 2+2ers.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your maths are a little off here. His 300 extra chips isn't 0.2BB, it's less than 0.1. So you're getting pretty close to 3:1 to play for (his) stacks at this point. Really the only decision is between call all the way or raise on 5th.