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#1
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
Relevant questions:
1) Does he c/r this flop with 44? 2) Does he think you'd bet the turn with AK? |
#2
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
FWIW I think calling and shoving are both viable and seem pretty close EV-wise; I'd opt for the former though because it is inherently less variance.
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#3
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
it would be nice if i had a better read on his range but like i said i haven't played with him much, only 100 or 200 hands.
i think a J is really likely though (as well as underpair of course). |
#4
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
you can't call here, i think a call is only profitable on this board in an unraised pot
i think it's good theoretically, i mean he's got to fold a lot of pocket pairs and some Jacks... but from the action on previous streets he doesn't have a Jack |
#5
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
keik, you don't think he has a J ever and you also don't think we can call??
also if villain is one of you guys do you call the shove with a J? |
#6
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
Looks like a blocker bet with QQ, TT. Your shove represents AK, which does conform with your line. I dont think there are too many hands other than JJ hes calling with here OOP. I like the shove.
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#7
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
looks good
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#8
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
[ QUOTE ]
keik, you don't think he has a J ever and you also don't think we can call?? [/ QUOTE ] sorry.... forgot about counterfeiting..... which leans it a little toward calling i still don't think calling w a J is good here... i mean AK is a reasonable hand for you (even w turn ch) |
#9
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
lets say his range is QQ/AJ/JTs/TT-88 (reasonable imo), and assume he folds QQ 60% and Jx 40%. lets compare call vs. shove.
36 combos of TT-88, 24 combos of QQ/AJ/JTs so: Call EV: +$510 x 60% + -$170 x 40% = +$238 Shove EV: +$510 x (60% + (20% x 60%) + (20% x 40%)) + (-$548.10 x (20% x 40% + 20% x 60%) = +$298.38 dunno what a realistic fold % would be but if we assume he folds QQ and Jx w/ the same frequency, he needs to fold about 35.7% of the time to make it as much EV as calling. |
#10
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
People saying QQ: You think he expects OP to call w/ A high often enough to be value betting QQ on the river? Seems unlikely.
I agree with OP that villain has a J like over 75% of the time. That being said, I really don't know if it's a good bluff or not. I think I like it though. |
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