KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.

[MrWookie]

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If he does lead the turn again it’s because he has the AA or 99 or less often QQ. Point is, I don’t think we get bet into on the turn by a worse hand often enough to wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really key here. I don't have quite enough live experience to estimate unknowns in this spot, and our read was not extensive about this. Online, I generally expect people to keep betting until I tell them not to, ESPECIALLY if they were getting out of line and LRRing w/o AA. Online, often times a dumb LRR with cheese is done by a bully who thinks he can fold everyone. If the case live is that the majority of the time he's the kind of player who will only be betting the turn with a hand that has us crushed, then obviously the plan to wait for the turn is a poor one. I was pretty solidly in the "wait" camp, but this would definitely push me to raise the flop.

[KitCloudkicker]

fwiw, i have now read the example in SSHE more carefully.

the preflop action is that there is an open raiser, and you are next in with KK and 3 bet. some people cold call, and the PFR caps. you call.

the flop is T95 two tone, and the PFR bets.

in this example, because the PFR is not a LRR, it is pretty obvious that he has an overpair JJ-AA (or a set of tens). thus, we can safely smooth call the flop and pretty much always guarantee a turn bet (unless an Ace falls and he doesnt have AA).

this is different from my example. in the hand posted here, although i thought it was likely the LRR had QQ-AA, it is very possible he has a random pair/suited connector/overs and is just gambling preflop and on the flop. thus, since a turn bet by him is not guaranteed, raising the flop becomes the preferred play.

just thought i'd point out what i see is now the key difference between the two hands.