Absolute badbeat jackpot odds

[p-brane]

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Ive played over 4 millon hands of poker and never had a qualifying bad beat. Only seen two at my tables. I think 1.9millon-1 is a very good estimate on odds.

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Don't you think it's more likely that they initiate a BBJ hand every so often? Look at the evidence:

There is an immediate fanfare of chips falling etc. when someone wins. See the video of Milkmoney winning:http://www.absolutepoker.com/badbeatpoker/
From a programming perspective it would make more sense for there to be a short delay while the BBJ was verified by a human before the onscreen celebration. On the other hand, if you were initiating it, you could produce a big hullabaloo to play out just as the last card hits.

Also, if the odds are 1 in 500,000 hands, then I should expect to be at a BBJ table about once a year. I played 2000 hands yesterday. My odds would be 1 in 250 of hitting yesterday alone.

This doesn't jive with mathematical intuition or my card sense. But it DOES seem to correspond to the frequency of winners. See the above web page listing EIGHT separate winners in October.

Also, they advertised the BBJ heavily in October, including Bluff and Cardplayer.

I agree with your estimate of 1 in 1.9M, and that would mean AP dealt more than 15 million hands in October, the month the scandal hit.

Based on this post: [ QUOTE ]
1. Empirical: In a news article, AP officials reported that nearly 1 million hands were played from from July 3 to July11=8 days which would suggest about 125,000 hands per day.

[/ QUOTE ] We should expect about 4 million hands a month. (And was this news article quoting BBJ hands, or all hands?)

And based on this post: [ QUOTE ]
Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands.

[/ QUOTE ] It would be about 5 million hands in a month. Both of those estimates are pre-scandal. So if at their peak, it was 4 to 5 million hands per month, how many would you expect during a boycott by many players?

So unless Absolute Poker TRIPLED their traffic during the cheating scandal, my money is on a <u>not-so-random</u> bad beat jackpot.

I suppose that would be fine. My only question would then be... Are the recipients of the jackpot money picked at random?