How to consider remote hands

[DickieBets]

Last night at 25NL, I raised preflop and was called by a guy OOP. On the flop, the guy donk bet- and since I had flopped top two pair - I reraised to more than pot size - which he called. The pot was now large and on the turn, a card came up giving him a possible straight. I considered it but thought that since he would have had to had a gut shot draw - it was unlikely - and proceeded to get stacked due to him, indeed, hitting his gutshot draw.

So my question is how much credit do you give for these remote donkey draws ? If I was to worry about it everytime, I would surely lose alot of value. Or is it something you just to come to terms with like being outdrawn after getting it all in with Aces or losing to a set over set ?

I have the hand at home, but didn't think an example is necessary. The thing that worries me is I'm getting my money in bad - which is different than being outdrawn. Even though he is playing terrible, not even coming close to his implied odds, I'm still "making a mistake" by getting my chips in without the best hand.

[thac]

You have to put him on a range, not the one draw that just hit. Figure out what all he is donk/calling on the flop, and go from there.

[DickieBets]

Here is the hand I was talking about How would you evaluate what to do here ?

Here is my first attempt at assigning hand ranges in PokerStove - thanks to Matrix' excellent post. Do you agree with the hand range ?

Board: Ks 4s Th Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.255% 57.15% 01.10% 3420 66.00 { KcTs }
Hand 1: 41.745% 40.64% 01.10% 2432 66.00 { TT+, 44, AQs+, AsJs, ATs-A5s, As4s, A3s-A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QTs+, JsTs, J9s, AJo+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+ }



Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $27.85
SB: $22.50
BB: $16.60
Hero (UTG): $30.05

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $1.15, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $1.25</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, SB folds, BB calls $4.75

Turn: ($15.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero ???? </font>

[Jailblazers]

Not betting here is too weak-tight IMO.

[kerk]

i would raise the flop bigger, to about 8$ or so.
I would bet about 11$ on the turn.

[DickieBets]

The Problem I had was that once I bet, I'm pot committed. The board is scary because if he has an A-J or J-9, he has a straight. Also K-Q has me beat. But the only way he could have a straight is to have chased a gutshot draw ! I'm trying to figure out if committing here is a +EV play. Also if I bet and he pushes - should I have the discipline to fold ?

[thac]

Your range here looks pretty good, you forgot QJ, but that's a small part of his range. Definitely need to bet here, he only has $10 left into a pot of what will be $35.. just stick it in now and hope for the best!

[DickieBets]

Thanks very much for looking at this.

[thac]

Not a problem, keep posting these awkward spots and we'll keep helping. Good luck sir, sorry if he outdrew you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DickieBets]

Thanks again - it was annoying he hit his gutshot - Often times you just have to resign yourself to things like that - but at the same time I always want to ensure that I'm playing my hands as good as I can.