#21
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
I just talked to him in the chat and he said, he had AK.
That is basically the worst hand he is shoving the river with, IMO. |
#22
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
Black,
OnlyNuts has really gotten in ur head eh? In regards to his playing style. I say 1. If ur that intimidated practice better table selection 2. Fold everything except AA vs him in the future btw in regards to the hand. Horrible lay-down. Apparently u stack off with only the nuts as well. |
#23
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
Tough spot given your read. My gut says its a call, and so does my math, although I did have to make a few assumptions. (If somebody can confirm I did it right that would be good, because I don't often do these types of calcs.)
Pot odds: (327+347):347 = 1.94:1, so you need 34.0% equity against his range to call. Combos we are beaten by: AQs 1 QQ 3 - Doesn't peel the flop all the time, so discounted to 1.5. Total: 2.5 Combos we chop: AK 3 Combos we beat: AJs 1 - rarely calls PF, discounted to 0.25 So, counting the chop outs as half, our odds are: 2.53/2 + 0.25) = 2.5:1.75 --> 1.43:1 Based on this combinatorical analysis we have 41.1% equity, meaning the fold is a relatively significant mistake, especially if there is any chance he is bluffing. Note: If he always peels QQ on the flop, or ever calls AQo preflop, then calling becomes a significant error. This to me seems unlikely. |
#24
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
Assuming the range given above. It is actually a fold.
Lose: -347*2.5 Tie: +327/2*3 Win: +(327+347)*.25 Sum: (-867.5 + 490.5 + 168.5)/(2.5+3+.25) = -$36.26 ev. You can't count the chop outs as half. However. I think if you were to add in .3 possibilites of bluffs, which would be .3/(2.5+3+.25+.3) = 5%, it's neutral EV. So he only needs to bluff 5% of the time to make this a call, but I don't think he is personally with those stats and hero's note |
#25
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
This is just AK too often, he folds AQ preflop i think always. So its AK or QQ, and he may fold QQ on the flop.
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#26
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
I hate this hand. If you're gonna get 1 street of value and fold with trips top kicker, muck AK preflop. Your line makes no sense.
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#27
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
You are chopping almost always.
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#28
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
[ QUOTE ]
good fold [/ QUOTE ] |
#29
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
[ QUOTE ]
ur reraise preflop is terrible [/ QUOTE ] agree, im pretty sure reraising ak pf is not good against a guy whose utg raising range is this tight. also, your reasons for reraising seem flawed to me. to "make the hand easier to play" is hardly a good reason; plus, i dont think playing AK in a multiway pot is as difficult as you make it seem. |
#30
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Re: I fold trips top kicker
I think it's a call for the chop. If he's as nitty as you say he won't have QQ or AQ here.
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