$26 - 45 sng bubble

[memphis57]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if you've played these SNGs, but they play REALLY tight -- in general.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I haven't played these, and in fact my SNG experience is limited to about 50 of the stars 3.25s and a couple hunded smaller buyins. I'm posting here on advice to try to learn something from you guys.

So I'll concede that you're probably right, but let me try to draw you out a little more. First, everybody seems to agree that pushing is the thing to do, and I don't disagree with that. My only question is whether you'd rather be called or not, and if so, whether you can get better results by trying to entice someone else to push first.

I understand a t1500 blind-steal is a major gain at this point. However, it seems likely that the bubble is going to be decided in the next 5-10 hands, very likely in the next 4-5 including this one (4th is shortie's BB). There's a 50-50 to 66-33 chance (I guess) that shortie will go out first. If he doesn't, then there are similar odds the new shortie will go out first, and so on. Yet, I've seen many times where 2-3-4 shorties survive and pass on their ordeal to the next in line.

By my calcs, if hero just steals the blinds once, he only improves to 5th from 6th, leaving him still clearly in the danger zone, and meaning he could still need another good push hand within the next 10 hands. What are the odds of getting that? This could be the best hand he sees for a while.

Also, winning all-in here puts him solidly in 2nd place in chips, greatly improving his chances for a more meaningful cash out. I don't know the prize structure here, but in stars last place in a 45-man tourney (7th) pays 2x buy-in (x fee) with the next places being 3x, 4x and 5x. Thus, I'd estimate the EV of winning all-in here to be something like 3-5x buy-in, with the alternative (try to steal blinds) being worth 55-65% of the bottom prize, or 1.1-1.3x buy-in. Using those numbers, it would seem to pay to go all-in against anything up to QQ, where you only have a 32% chance of winning (using midpoint EVS, 32% times 4 = 1.28, which is > 1.2).

Admittedly, the EV calc for stealing blinds is very complicated, and could be as high as maybe 1.75 x buyin, depending on assumtpions. But so could my 3-5x EV estimate of winning allin be higher, and even if not, using the 1.75 number, it still justifies going against hands up to A9s (43% chance to beat it).

OK, don't spare my feelings, tell me what's wrong with that logic.

[AMT]

anything except shoving is wrong. no ones range is going to open up now with your read.

[Frank Zappy]

This is an easy Push.

In fact, Kx here is almost a mandatory push at this stage.

If you want to have any hope of winning these on a regular basis you have to get use to shoving in these situations. Getting called with KTs here is not a fate worse than death either.

[sssick]

Prize structure:
1 - $410
2 - $270
3 - $172
4 - $108
5 - $64
6 - $54

Thanks for the replies. Having a tight image and the mindset of playing for 1st, I pushed. If BB's call range includes Ace rag there, I'll take it.

[Frank Zappy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if you've played these SNGs, but they play REALLY tight -- in general.


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I haven't played these, and in fact my SNG experience is limited to about 50 of the stars 3.25s and a couple hunded smaller buyins. I'm posting here on advice to try to learn something from you guys.

So I'll concede that you're probably right, but let me try to draw you out a little more. First, everybody seems to agree that pushing is the thing to do, and I don't disagree with that. My only question is whether you'd rather be called or not, and if so, whether you can get better results by trying to entice someone else to push first.

I understand a t1500 blind-steal is a major gain at this point. However, it seems likely that the bubble is going to be decided in the next 5-10 hands, very likely in the next 4-5 including this one (4th is shortie's BB). There's a 50-50 to 66-33 chance (I guess) that shortie will go out first. If he doesn't, then there are similar odds the new shortie will go out first, and so on. Yet, I've seen many times where 2-3-4 shorties survive and pass on their ordeal to the next in line.

By my calcs, if hero just steals the blinds once, he only improves to 5th from 6th, leaving him still clearly in the danger zone, and meaning he could still need another good push hand within the next 10 hands. What are the odds of getting that? This could be the best hand he sees for a while.

Also, winning all-in here puts him solidly in 2nd place in chips, greatly improving his chances for a more meaningful cash out. I don't know the prize structure here, but in stars last place in a 45-man tourney (7th) pays 2x buy-in (x fee) with the next places being 3x, 4x and 5x. Thus, I'd estimate the EV of winning all-in here to be something like 3-5x buy-in, with the alternative (try to steal blinds) being worth 55-65% of the bottom prize, or 1.1-1.3x buy-in. Using those numbers, it would seem to pay to go all-in against anything up to QQ, where you only have a 32% chance of winning (using midpoint EVS, 32% times 4 = 1.28, which is > 1.2).

Admittedly, the EV calc for stealing blinds is very complicated, and could be as high as maybe 1.75 x buyin, depending on assumtpions. But so could my 3-5x EV estimate of winning allin be higher, and even if not, using the 1.75 number, it still justifies going against hands up to A9s (43% chance to beat it).

OK, don't spare my feelings, tell me what's wrong with that logic.

[/ QUOTE ]

With KTs I don't care if I'm called or not and actually hope for a call and a double up. Picking up the blinds is a great result, but I welcome a showdown as well.

If I bust out and am not in the money this time, OK, it happens and I bust out of more tournaments than I win or get in the money, so there's no shame there.

Also, if the difference in Prize money were oh say, $50,000 or $5,000,000 instead of $50, then it might make a difference in how much you turn on the afterburners. Even then, God willing, if I get that deep in a big tournament, I'd still hope I have the Testicular Fortitude to push with KTs in this spot and not sit around waiting for other people to go bust.

When you let these opportunities slip, you loose the initiative and it's tough to recover; UTG open pushes, or it's folded to you and you have J6 and think "I folded KTs, how can I now play J6?" and your situation grows more desperate.

I know the math, but I don't go by a straight application of the math, because as I've said before, if tournament poker were all about the math, CPA's would be on the top of every Leader Board. Sometimes, in fact, if you're healthy you'll do this more often than not, you'll ignore the odds and advise and listen to the little voice telling you what to do.

You live in each moment, in each hand, in each bet and to alter one action changes all of the other subsequent actions. One day you realize that when you sit out of a hand, it's not even the same Flop had you stayed in and played -- the decision to stay in changes your entire Universe. You think everything stays the same except your decision not to play, but that's not how the Universe works. Like every other decision you make, your decision not to play alters everything.

I'm not a regular poster here, I just pop in from time to time. These situations make great practice for your Poker Instincts, don't pass them up!