How gamblers can make a better world

[EWillers]

While a decent idea, it seems that the public (at least the US public) isn't really keen on it.

DARPA plans for futures betting in 2003

[Collin Moshman]

Very thought-provoking article. I especially like that William explicitly addresses the many logistical difficulties that would accompany this type of gambling.

The only part I think is slightly misworded is the opening:

"Most gambling literature is focused on discussions of how gamblers can help themselves, by placing winning bets. This article has a different focus. This article discusses how the gambling community can help everyone."

Entrepeneurs would not look to offer such wagers as a "public good," rather if they could make a profit from doing so. Individuals would look for +EV bets, the house would get its take, etc., just like all other forms of gambling.

But the 2+2 community is filled with resourceful and entrepenurial individuals, and perhaps somebody reading this will one day bite these difficult logistical bullets and give it a go -- which could indeed have very interesting ramifications.

[RoundTower]

I'm not convinced that "policymakers being better informed" will really make the world a better place. They will still tend to act in their own best interest.

What makes a difference is the public being better informed, and holding their (elected) representatives responsible for their decisions. At the moment the voting public in the western world is not particularly well informed. Not that there isn't enough information out there, but that the average person isn't exposed to it or doesn't seek it out.

That said, I am interested in an exchange of this sort, as a gambler rather than as a humanitarian. Intrade is another example of a site that does some of this.

[rrrorrim]

Hey, cool idea. Like a survival-of-the-fittest to find those people who are best at predicting our future (and what better motivator than money).


Imagine we had a website for futures gambling...

-It should be exclusive, kept under 50,000 people. And the details of wagers should not be available to the general public. This way, it doesn't have a significant impact on the outcome of events.

-How to decide who gets in? Firstly, it should be mid-stakes and higher. Dead money is not the priority here; discovering people who are skilled at prediction is. Secondly, for obvious reasons we don't want many policy-makers in the pool of players, so there has to be another filter to decide who gets in: The Futures Gambling website should be in league with major poker websites. The bulk of the Future Gamblers player pool should be consistent poker winners, to be chosen by the poker websites.

-The consistent Futures Gambler winners could become the most trusted advisors in the world (which, of course, could lead to some very dangerous situations down the road.... but that's another post)

[JennPKRpro]

Gamblers take the risks which evolve the human race to new levels. Gamblers unite!