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#1
11-03-2007, 06:42 PM
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Re: BB folds 50% from a steal, but my steal backfires.
I think you should call here. We do not have a really strong hand, but BB here seems to know the concept of stealing, and by checking the turn behind we are inducing a bluff. When villain then bets, I say that this is a bluff more than 4:17 of the time, making this a profitable call.
Edit: changed / to : 
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#2
11-03-2007, 06:47 PM
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Re: BB folds 50% from a steal, but my steal backfires.
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should call here. We do not have a really strong hand, but BB here seems to know the concept of stealing, and by checking the turn behind we are inducing a bluff. When villain then bets, I say that this is a bluff more than 4/17 of the time, making this a profitable call. [/ QUOTE ] use some hand reading. the guy either called the flop with Ax Jx 7x or a flush/straight draw. the turn hits everything and likely prevents a bluff from 7x. when he bets the river his range is massively weighted toward Ax Kx QT and clubs. also 4/17 for breakeven is wrong. it's 1/5.25, not 1/4.25. x = chance you're good x*4.25 - (1-x)*1 = 0 4.25x = 1-x 5.25x = 1 x = 1/5.25 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1Scd0rNt-s
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#3
11-03-2007, 06:57 PM
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Re: BB folds 50% from a steal, but my steal backfires.
If I wanted to put this in Pokerstove, what would I need to look at in his PT stats in order to get a somewhat close or valid % range of hands on this guy? So that I could put the range plus the board and my hand into Pokerstove.
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#5
11-04-2007, 08:14 AM
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Re: BB folds 50% from a steal, but my steal backfires.
[ QUOTE ]
If I wanted to put this in Pokerstove, what would I need to look at in his PT stats in order to get a somewhat close or valid % range of hands on this guy? So that I could put the range plus the board and my hand into Pokerstove. [/ QUOTE ] Didn't you say he defended 50% on BB? Start with that. Very very easy fold on river.
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