1/2, can I fold Qs here?

[dergitarrist]

I shove... the solid player will still raise you with KJ and AJ here and fold to a reraise. And against the donk you're happy to get it in.

If it weren't for the donk in the hand a call would be okay, imo. But here you're commiting a substantial amount of your chips and you're very likely to be in the same situation on the turn as you are on the flop, forced to make a tough call.
He DOES NOT have KK or AA here, since he just cold-called pre-flop. I think the same goes for JJ. Cold-calling these hands seems highly unlikely for a 17/15/3 decent regular.

So I end up giving him 99-TT, AJ, KJ, J9, QJ, J9, T9 and you're 58%. Add to that your fold-equity against top-pair hands and you're good enough to shove. Especially with the donk in the hand, liable to call a lot if decent villain folds.

Player 1: 57.962 % 55.106 % 5.712 % 39.182 % QsQh
Player 2: 42.038 % 39.182 % 5.712 % 55.106 % 99-TT, AJs, KJs+, QJs, J9s, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QJo, J9o, T9o

[jcl]

that range is VERY generous. AJ KJ?? yet no JT?

[sh58]

really tough spot, i think 3betting has merit because of the dead money in the pot, button could have a set although i guess he will be 3betting JJ, TT and 99 almost all the time making it unlikely.

KQ would probably 3bet as well, so he probably has 2 pair, which we are flipping with, plus the dead money means we have the odds to shove profitably

[Shizzle12345]

folding here is pretty bad, you can fold out like bottom 2 pair her from the nit? He can do this with hands like AJ, so def shove here. Shoving>folding>calling imo. If you call and turn is blank and he pots it you gotta fold, cos you got very bad equity, so basicly you want to check it down if you call?

Def shove here all day.

[dergitarrist]

That hand belongs in there of course... doesn't change my point, though. And I don't think my range is too optimistic. I think I can safely cancel out AA, KK, JJ. He'd never cold-call that pre-flop.

And I see tons of fold-equity against bottom-two or top-pair type hands.

I stand by my post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[iltw555]

I shoved because I didn't think rag has that strong a hand, set is unlikely because he would often 3 bet me PF, 2 pair possible, str8 possible but he would more likely to just call with that.

result, rag fold, bb call with J9 and won

[sh58]

the ranges people have provided are not very likely.

think about a 17/15/3 and what he does to an agressive CO opener when he is in pos. that sort of player will 3bet AA-TT 100% imo. 99 he will normally 3bet, KQ he will normally 3bet. if he calls, his range is fairly small, as his VPIP/PFR ratio is very close. he basically calls with small PP's and SC's, i'm pretty sure he has 2 pair here

if he were a 17/12 i think you might be able to find a fold, but not a 17/15

[dergitarrist]

And you were a coinflip against that. Which is really one of the best hands the donk has here.

Correct, +ev play imo.

[RUDIKULOUS]

iltw, i think you played it perfectly.