Pirateboy's NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

[Jim T]

[ QUOTE ]
Saturday plays with edge in cents in parenthesis

Rutgers EV (2)
Cincinnati +195 (14)
Maryland +125 (9)
NC State +345 (21)
Duke +650 (115)
Navy +140 (19)
Alabama +240 (12)
Arizona State +250 (10)
Buffalo +215 (2)
Michigan State +160 (10)
Idaho +140 (5)
New Mexico +145 (18)
Stanford +140 (5)
EMU +260 (5)
UAB +355 (69)
Florida State +235 (5)
San Diego State +155 (17)

Like I said, that's the edge in cents on a dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that this was based on road dogs, which would make more sense given the historical percentages - yet you have Duke and Alabama which are both at home.

[pirateboy]

Never said road dogs.

[Austiger]

Can you clarify what BE points you are using now and how you came up with them?

[pirateboy]

I will next week for you.

I came up with them when I received a new data set with win %s for every point spread. The guy who sent it to me asked me not to pass it around, so I'm trying to respect it. The BEs can be determined by subtracting the (edge) from the price I got.

So, let's say I got Team X +250 (10), then the BE is +240.

[pirateboy]

Last week was a down week, IMO. The reason I picked dogs in this experiment was because they seemed to be winning a tad more than normal.

Last week 6-12 -5.45u
YTD 13-25 -4.85u

I'm still very confident in the experiment. I will be posting any Thursday plays by 3 PST.

[pirateboy]

Only 1 play tonight:

TCU +240 (need +235)

[pirateboy]

Today's plays

Michigan State +170 (+153)
Virginia +155 (+141)
Wake Forest +315 (+289)
Temple +2250 (+885)
Duke +525 (+465)
Vanderbilt +150 (+142)
Connecticut +210 (+207)
Iowa State +160 (+150)
Notre Dame +145 (+142)
Colorado St +300 (+283)
Utah St +2000 (+924)
Wyoming +450 (+449)
UCLA +240 (+228)
Miss State +145 (+142)
Stanford +400 (+357)
Florida State +220 (+213)
New Mexico State +145 (+127)
NIU +145 (+142)
UNC +145 (+127)
Tulane +170 (+150)
South Carolina +250 (+228)
Cal +165 (+150)
SDSU +130 (+121)
Arkansas State +215 (+213)