Pot Sized Continuation Bet

[willwonka]

Thanks for all of the responses and I do realize that there are no hard and fast rules.

My general thoughts are that pot sized bets (escpecially on dry boards) are a sign of weakness and they are trying to push you off of the hand by not giving you proper odds.

The hand (for me) that spurred this whole conversation went like this (full HH on my blog). Blings 100/200 and my stack is slightly more than UTG in this hand. UTG is an aggressive, but solid player.

UTG raised the pot 3x and I call from the BB with T9s. The flop was Ac8s7c (somewhat dry; but has an Ace). UTG throws out pot sized $1300 bet.

There is what made me start thinking.. What does this mean? Does he have an Ace with middle kicker or low kicker? Did the flop miss him? Why a pot sized bet?

So I called the bet; planning on pushing the action on the turn if it helped me at all. The turn card was 2s which did help me by giving my flush draw to go along with OESD.

Given my thoughts on the weakness of pot sized bets on a dryish board, I pushed. He tanked for a while and eventually folded. He later went on to tell me that he was ahead which of course I knew; but I thought he had a hand that he would have to lay down to pressure.

So, having said all of that, it is read dependent and there are several things that could factor into it; but I think I will always start my thought process as why a pot sized bet.. is he weak? And then go from there.

[DevinLake]

I think you played the hand poorly and are being results oriented. Because it worked one time, is not a good reason to think it was right.

People don't mess around a lot on Axx boards. Also, a pot size bet it usually strength more than it is weakness for most villains. Most are not really all that concerned with board texture when sizing their bets.

I think at the 100/200 level calling an UTG raise with T9s is bad. I don't even call 100bbs deep in a cash game.

I think shoving that turn is bad. It's a blank. When ever someone takes this line against me (flat pre, flat flop, donk blank turn) I take it as weakness and act accordingly. I would not fold any A here ever.

[KCW12]

IIRC, there was a 2+2 magazine article several months ago where they analyzed c-bets over several thousand hands in cash games (I don't remember what stakes). The results showed that a c-bet of 1/2 or slightly more than 1/2 the pot was most effective relative to the amount you are risking, and it was more likely to work on A or K-high flops with no obvious draws. Not sure how much this applies to STTs, but in general, it makes sense because if you raise pf and bet out when the flop comes A or K-high, your opponent has to seriously consider the possibility that you hit top pair.

[willwonka]

I don't necessarily disagree that I played the hand badly and certainly it was not meant to be results orirented post. I realize that and that is why I posted this to get more comments. I can definitely handle the criticism and would prefer it, if necessary.

What do you put people on that flat call preflop and flop bets.. especially a pot sized flop bet. Whether good or bad, I think playing T9s from BB is OK here. Now, given the Ace on the flop from a UTG raiser and a pot sized bet... makes me think he does NOT have a big Ace... but JJ-KK. Maybe he does have an Ace is protecting against straight and flush draws.

One thing from an earlier poster, I don't think you see a lot of pot sized bets here. 1/2 - 3/4 pot is more typical.. espcially from somebody that is strong.

Back to what he puts me on? Would you call for all of your tourney chips with a little or Mid Ace here? Would you call with JJ-KK? Not that I am qualified for this; but trying to get to some further level of thinking on this... more than just playing my cards.

[DevinLake]

Why don't you think calling T9s is bad here? At 100/200 you don't have implied odds, your out of position, and you are behind his range.

What would I put you on? Answer would be a weak hand. Usually a middle pair, or some draw.

I think making an assumption that making a pot size bet on this flop isn't a big A is just grasping a straws for a reason to not fold.

I'd personally bet 2/3rds pot or so here with every hand I'm c-betting. In a sit n go from UTG, that would be mostly Ax's. My range is pretty tight from UTG, so it's going to be big As and pps for the most part. I might c-bet TT- to protect my hand. But, I wouldn't c-bet JJ+ unless I was willing to stack off with it here.

When you shove that turn, I'd have a hard time folding anything that beats second pair.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
My general thoughts are that pot sized bets (escpecially on dry boards) are a sign of weakness and they are trying to push you off of the hand by not giving you proper odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This caught my eye because I think it can lead to a lot of ambiguity. To put it simply, just because a bet someone makes means that hey may have a marginal hand or are betting to get you off of your hand, for protection, etc... does *not* mean that you will be able to bluff them, push them off hands, represent monsters, etc...

big bets may mean "I'm afraid but I'm not folding".

[willwonka]

Devin,

This post was supposed to start as a generic post on pot sized bets on the flop; but then I posted a bad example as it was NOT a SNG but a multi that started the hand with each having 6K stacks with mine being almost 7K. I briefly mentioned that in my opening post.

I play mostly SNGs and see this type of betting there so that is why I posted here; but I probably shouldn't have posted the specific hand here in STT as it may be more suited for a discussion with the Multis. This came from a weekly blogger tourney that I play in.

I apologize for the confusion.

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop was Ac8s7c (somewhat dry; but has an Ace).

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf?

flush draw (although admittedly the A is out there) plus a series of very plausible straight draws = not dry board.

[willwonka]

I didn't give much attention/thought to straight draws since it was an UTG raiser. For the most part rules hands like T9s (which I had anyway which makes it even more immplausible).