Dr. Bob NCAA Writeups

[MicroBob]

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My math model favors Ohio by 17 points (it would have been 15 points with DiMichele at QB for Temple)

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I think Dr. Bob needs to adjust some of those math models.
I know that TEM is kind of lousy but it's not like Ohio are world-beaters. He still favors Ohio by 15 even without TEM's injured QB.
Seems very very weird to this square's observations.
But what do I know? I think the Ohio/Tem line is close to correct and the way it's been moving I'm going to start leaning towards TEM.
Injured QB or not doesn't make a huge difference on their apparent rapidly improving defense.

Ohio can score, but they can give up a ton of points too so I think TEM's offense still has a chance against these guys. This is the same Ohio team that got crushed by Buffalo 31-10 a few weeks ago. To be fair, BUF crushed TEM as well 42-7.

Ohio has beaten one team by more than 15 points all year...and that was 36-14 over Gardner-Webb. They get involved in close-ish games with so-so teams like EMU and BG but suddenly they are so good that they should just run away with this one and should be much bigger favorites?

Just not convinced. And if this line gets to 10 or higher then i think I have to jump on the TEM side.

[iggymcfly]

Sagarin ratings like Ohio by 8.5 with no adjustment for DiMichele and the common opponent you cited implies that Ohio should be favored by 14. Where exactly are you getting the idea that 10's a huge overadjustment?

[MicroBob]

Don't think 10 is a huge over-adjustment but I do think it's good enough.

I don't look as much at the common opponent angle because I believe TEM has improved somewhat since then.
Defensively they have really improved it appears which is where I really start to like them to keep it close.

They beat Miami 24-17 and AKR 24-20 and both are teams that had put up significant points just the week before.
After their blowout loss to BUF earlier in the seaon they turned it around the next week in a tough 22-17 loss to UConn. But it wasn't looked at as any kind of turnaround for TEM because it was just viewed as another loss for them against a so-so team.
Except now we kind of know that UConn isn't really that so-so.

TEM's 2 losses of 14+ were 42-7 to Buffalo and 37-21 to Army.
They have won 3 straight and have confidence on their side as well. Dr. Bob sees a letdown trend playing against them but did not give details. If it's just about losing teams winning 3 straight and then playing on the road or something like that then I'm not sure that applies fully to a TEM team that has been so bad for so long and now has more pride in their program then they have had for awhile. It's not like they are going to take their upcoming opponent lightly so I really am not feeling the let-down here.

So I really think this TEM team is improved and playing well and it's more than just their QB.


On the other side, I just don't think Ohio is that great. And they haven't defeated a single division-1 team by more than 11 points all year.

In Ohio's last 6 games they have allowed a ton of points.
34, 33, 31, 42, 43, 27.
TEM's offense should be able to move the ball on these guys even without their top QB.
They beat Miami last week mostly with their back-up who had entered the game early in the 2nd Q and played decently.
I think they will be able to compete.

[CardSharpCook]

Mbob rocks. What are you up to, dude?

[Webster]

Not a huge fan of Bobs picks - what was his record last year? Was it .500??

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Mbob rocks. What are you up to, dude?

[/ QUOTE ]


Depends on what you mean by 'what am I up to'?

What bet-size am I up to in sports? Not very high at all.
I do think my analysis should come with a disclaimeer that I am pretty much just speaking off the cuff. But if you are any kind of sharp at all you should be able to immediately see that I'm pretty much full of it and am not exactly the sharpest sports-cat in town.


What am I up to overall? Still trying to not suck so much at poker mostly.

[MicroBob]

Final:
Ohio 23 - Temple 7.

Okay...you win this round Dr. Bob!!