NL50 rivered J high flush in limped pot

[Profish2285]

Honestly with the stacks thats left, I need the king or better I think to shove the rest in. Unless my math is way off you have a little less than 1/2 a stack left after calling his re raise. I dont see the need to put in the rest of that stack without a stronger hand. Theres no way I am folding here because smaller flushes can happen. On the other hand, bigger flushes can happen too. Qx and Ax, all are reasonable. I am going to agree that he will not fold a smaller flush either, but shoving here just doesnt seem right. At best this looks like an extremely high variance play if you shove.

[L'ennemi.]

yes it's higher variance, but you're only be need to be good 50% of the time once he calls to make it the correct play.
Here he is never folding, so how many combo are there that he would play like this. If you beat more than 50% you need to shove. It's just a guess but I'll say Q high is good enough

[yeotaJMU]

the more i think about it the more i can see a merit in shoving... i think if you can handle the variance then it is ok. i would rather take the already large pot than risk losing a bigger one myself though

[Profish2285]

For me I am calling here. I know if I shove here and see a better flush its going to put me on crazy monkey tilt so I would rather just call and only go on regular monkey tilt.

[traz]

against this guy I probably value raise especially since Kc is already on the board. A case can probably be made for calling though, but I've got gambol inside me

[checktheriver]

Thanks for all the answers. Obvioulsy Villain is never folding here, so as L'ennemi says it's whether or not we're >50% against his range.

If we only include reasonable flushes :

Board: Kc 8d 4s 3c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Qc9c, Qc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { JcTc }

If we widen his range to include all straights (65, A5) :


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.930% 20.93% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, A5s, Ac4c, Qc9c, Qc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 65s, A5o, 65o }
Hand 1: 79.070% 79.07% 00.00% 34 0.00 { JcTc }


If we include less straights (only 65s,A5s) :

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.368% 47.37% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, A5s, Ac4c, Qc9c, Qc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 65s }
Hand 1: 52.632% 52.63% 00.00% 10 0.00 { JcTc }

So I guess it's pretty close and read-related.

Results here :
<font color="white"> I called, and Villain had A5o </font>