river valuebet in 3bet pot

[sh58]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($229.94)
BB ($235.29)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($188)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($311.75)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $28</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $20.

Flop: ($59) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, UTG calls $40.

Turn: ($139) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($139) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $69</font>, UTG calls $69.

Final Pot: $277
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: $277, between UTG and Hero.</font>

villain looks competent, although i haven't played with him much before. he is 25/22/3 over 282 hands.

i think the hand is pretty standard til the river.

a) valuebet or check behind? i felt TT or 99 would pay me off

b) sizing of the river bet good? thinking about it, it looks too much like a thin valuebet, and not enough like a bluff. i was thinking $100 might be better...

[blah-blah-blah]

I think its too thin. if he's good he's certainly capable of checking the river w/ a monster hand and I don't know if they are calling w/ TT/99.

[Double Eagle]

This is no brainer mandatory, but I would make it less value looking, like 90ish.

[thac]

He checked, it's worth a bet. It's 4-handed so he might call down a bit lighter and he's definitely pretty loose so he might accomodate by calling down lighter. I like the size of the bet too.

[oh well...]

I'm checking behind here. I don't think he's really ever calling with anything you have beat.

[Pat Southern]

I'd go with $80 on river but ya you gotta bet this.

[orange]

nh

[oh well...]

Villain only has $120 behind on river for the $139 pot. I just don't really see him calling w/ 99/1010, as he's pretty much committing his whole stack. Is it impossible that he has maybe AQ here and is being tricky? I mean his AF suggests not, but I don't think its out of the question.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain only has $120 behind on river for the $139 pot. I just don't really see him calling w/ 99/1010, as he's pretty much committing his whole stack. Is it impossible that he has maybe AQ here and is being tricky? I mean his AF suggests not, but I don't think its out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course its possible, sometimes he's trapping and you end up valuebetting for him. Luckily he has a worse hand enough of the time that its still profitable to bet.

[AAismyfriend]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its too thin. if he's good he's certainly capable of checking the river w/ a monster hand and I don't know if they are calling w/ TT/99.

[/ QUOTE ]

que?