20nl River value ?

[takingcontrol]

can i vb this river ever against a decent opponent ?
turn check good ?
villain is like 30/11/1.6 over 100 sample.

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($29.04)</font>
CO ($19.98)
<font color="#C00000">Button <font color="#A500AF">(villain)</font> ($21.62)</font>
SB ($2.48)
BB ($19.33)
UTG ($14.61)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.20, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.8</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button <font color="#A500AF">(villain)</font> calls $0.80, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.60.

Flop: ($2.70) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.65</font>, villain calls $1.65, UTG folds.

Turn: ($6) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, villain checks.

River: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ??

[dpis]

i would bet more on the flop, 2.50 probably. dont mind the turn check (not saying i prefer it), but if you check there, i think you should check/call any reasonable river; lots of draws got there, but he's shown no signs of any made hand yet, so if he bet the river i would call. i dont like betting the river in this case because not sure what i would do with his raise

[gregorio]

What range can villain have here? 30/11--they maybe only 3bet AK, TT+, so cold calling with position, their range could be something like PPs, mid+ SCs, high broadways and low suited boradways, AQ, AJ, maybe some more suited As. 30/11 is loose passive, but not ridiculously loose.

So with this range, what can they call the flop with and check behind on turn?

non-draws: AF 1.6 maybe they just call with AQ, KQ (but figure these would bet turn when checked to) QJ, QT, and some weak hands like TT, JJ. You say they are decent, so maybe they peel with A9, K9, T9, but they probably fold &lt;88 and aren't calling weaker 9x or Qx PF.

With AF 1.6 maybe they don't bet their draws. There are 2 draws out there on the flop, the straight and diamonds.

Diamonds get there on the turn. Maybe they try to slow play and want you to bet the river so they can raise, but it is more likely they weren't on a diamond draw. So, when they check the turn that leaves JT, and QJ, QT, (maybe KQ checks behind--I just don't know how passive AF1.6 AF is) TT-JJ, and maybe middle pair.

JT gets there on river.

So I think you have a pretty thin value bet. Maybe TT-JJ and A9 pays you off since you checked turn so you may look like you gave up on turn and are now bluffing river. But the only missed draws for you to bet are gutshots. I don't think villain will bet any worse hands than yours, since they can't have missed a draw either, and with AK1.6 they probably aren't even bluffing missed draws, you you can't check to induce a bluff.

So if you want to value bet, it's thin, but it's not like you have to worry about a bluff raise. If you get raised by this villain, you know you are beat. I don't v-bet river, but I am always too passive on the river and lose lots of value.

Also, bet more on flop with all the draws--at least 3/4 pot. Turn bet is okay to charge lone diamond draws and straight draws, but it also makes the river harder if you get called on turn, since your hand is mediocre.