50NL: T5s in SB

[bucktotal]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me try to make my case for bet/folding another way.

Worse hands aren't raising us and making us fold, we've fired every street.

If we check with the intention of folding to a bet, 8's and J's check through and we lose.

They would most likely fold if we bet.

We make BETTER HANDS FOLD if we bet. If we check to his busted draw and he decides to bet, OUR better hand folds to HIS bet.

Bet/folding is simpler, more aggressive, and saves us from this potential dilemma.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the comments so far, i see where some of you are coming from with the c/f on the river. i did not consider that my hand had sig showdown value in this spot.

anyway, the above was sort of my thought process as well at the time.

on the river, i didnt think villain had too many Aces in his range, but has lots of 8s and Js and busted draws. since i bet the flop and turn, he's probably checking behind most of that range and i thought he would be folding out most of the hands that beat me as well making the bet +EV. at least i thought so, because this A seemed like an excellent card for me (i guess this is what i'm looking for comments on...)

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $63.90
CO: $65.50
BTN: $67.75
SB: $49.50
Hero (BB): $50
UTG: $49.70

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1</font>, UTG calls $1, SB folds

Turn: ($3.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.75</font>, UTG calls $2.75

River: ($9) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.50</font>

what do you think about this bet size ???

[Profish2285]

Like I said, I HATE betting this river, but if youre going to anyway, I bet more. Thats a little more than 1/2 pot and will probably get called by jacks. People arent thinking that youre value betting them so they better fold, they think "oh a smaller bet, I can call that." But one more time, I hate this bet on the river, I hope it worked out for you this time but realize this, if he folded, you more than likely had the best hand.

[Hail Eris]

I don't think he folds a Jack here, honestly, even if you bet more. The range you're repping narrows dramatically when you fire this river. I mean, why would he put you on the NFD when you're the BB and could have any two clubs? Also, many people expect a semi-strong hand to check/call this river, because so many draws missed and a scare card fell.

I mean I don't know how good he is at reading hands, but you just don't see 3 barrels fired in a limped pot like this very often.

He probably folds an 8, just because he will feel less confident with an 8 after you bet the turn, even though 8s and Jacks are pretty much the same hand when you fire 3 here. If he was good, I would c/r the river here, but against a relative unknown you should just c/f and hope he checks through with T9 or busted clubs.

[bucktotal]

i am beginning to see that most ppl think that villain will call with a J, but im still not convinced... i think villain is folding all 8x hands and most Jx where x &lt; 9 ? this is where my handreading or reads might be way off.

because i bet the turn, i thought that i had to be bluffing this river a certain % of time to make the turn bet profitable and i picked this card to be that time. In general, is this a false assumption?

if false, this would suggest that my implied odds on the turn + turn FE are enough to warrant the c/f 99% of the time i dont hit the 5/T/spade. i dont know the answer to this one.

[traz]

if I'm betting, I bet 7. I don't think it's that bad imo