AJo, to be or not to be

martinimagic · #1 03-18-2006, 03:44 PM

UTG+2 (33/17/.7, but only 21 hands) seems a little laggy and Button (58/3/.9 after 100 hands) is just plain old non-thinking calling station. Love the button, he just keeps building nice pots for me.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Good position to raise with this hand. My only real worry is UTG+2 at this point.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

A little coordianted, but I love the rainbow. Giving myself about 9 outs at this point K's, 9's and 1 for the remaining A's.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero? 

I paused for a moment here... button is definitely going to call, I know this from experience. 9 outs. The odds are telling me to call. I wouldn't put it past UTG+2 to just have TP. What do you do?

Bill Lumberg · #2 03-18-2006, 04:05 PM

*grunch*

I really don't see any arguments here for folding or raising. If so, I'd like to hear them.

Eeegah · #3 03-18-2006, 04:08 PM

I need a very, very, very good reason to fold an 8+ outer, and that card isn't one. There's no point in raising, so I guess we've narrowed it down.

borges · #4 03-18-2006, 04:12 PM

I say Fold....UTG+2 could have a made straight, which means your nines and kings have to be discounted (or modify the effective pot).....even with nine outs you are barely able to call.....also button might 3-bet which would indeed be a "sling of outrageous fortune"...

Eeegah · #5 03-18-2006, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I say Fold....UTG+2 could have a made straight, which means your nines and kings have to be discounted (or modify the effective pot).....even with nine outs you are barely able to call.....also button might 3-bet which would indeed be a "sling of outrageous fortune"...

[/ QUOTE ]

Total MUBS, dude. The only possible straight right now is J9. Why are you discounting the king when it gives us the nuts? The only reason to discount the 9's is the possibility of JK which again isn't extremely likely--and given the action I'd say close to nil.

Nine outs is equivalent to a nut flush draw. Would you fold a nut flush draw in this situation?

borges · #6 03-18-2006, 04:31 PM

Eegah, you know a lot more about poker than I do......getting slapped down by you, Boz, Wookie, Aaron, etc etc is why I post.

Maybe it is MUBS, but you have a very coordinated flop.....I'm saying we have to discount the kings and nines because of chopping......we are getting pot odds of less than 4.5:1 to call. That requires approximately 8 outs. I postulate that given the action, we don't have 8 outs. Is that totally wrong?

With regards to MUBS, I do habitually sleep with a night-lite.... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Eeegah · #7 03-18-2006, 04:47 PM

Button will at least call the checkraise; we're being offfered 9.75 to 2 here if the button doesn't trey (again unlikely since he's a calling station). Splitting if the river is case 9? Maybe, but not often enough to make me want to fold this.

And to chop with case K would mean someone else would have exactly AJ and come on, how often does that happen?

Further, this action doesn't spell "straight draw." If button was on one and needed a free card he'd take it. If UTG+1 needed a card he wouldn't be checkraising unless he's a lot more LAGgier than we thought--in which case he probably would have checkraised the flop.

My guess is that UTG has QT and Button maybe some other pair (or even air hoping to take advantage of our turn check). These outs are as clean as we could ever hope for, and we've got good implied odds should we hit.

borges · #8 03-18-2006, 05:03 PM

thanks Eeegah.....I appreciate it.

briguin · #9 03-18-2006, 05:31 PM

small pot + small outs (less than nothing or = 3 outs to king? maybe +2or3 to overcards) = fold

I'm with ya on flop bet just due to position
turn.....gone like a freight train

martinimagic · #10 03-18-2006, 06:08 PM

Excellent analysis. I should have take more time to think about the situation and then called. I would have raise the river as well.

Lately, I am making a lot of poor decisions with hands like this... two or three of these in my favor makes a good session for me.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero folds , Button calls.

River: (9.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Button bets, UTG+2 calls.

Results:
 UTG+2 has Tc Qc (two pair, queens and tens).
Button has 9s Ts (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 11.75 BB.