NL25 - AQ vs turn min raise

[Profish2285]

At 100 is spew, so what is the cutoff then, 75? It just seems like villain has one pair beat here. 60 bb isnt THAT short.

[dpis]

great point. i'd also like to add that this is 25nl, a-x IS the nuts to some "25-5 donk who minraises" often enough to be profitable. i mean, again, if he's got some bs 2pr then so be it, but i'm fairly certain you can get it back if thats the case. It is NOT spew to put this guy in

[Profish2285]

Okay you follow that line, I will fold here until I find out what a reasonable cut off line is. I promise you will see two pair or better much more often than you wont. How can you even say a 25/5 donk is most likely to have nothing here? All that stat shows is that hes loose and barely raises pf, if anything that shows he is passive and thus LESS likely to have some bs with his raise.

[Shattered]

I'm interested in hearing what others have to say. This is 25NL and as a general rule all shorties are very, very terrible, but his line is pretty much the strongest he could have taken. You're getting 2:1 on your money if you shove, you have TP2K for 60BB on a dry board, and you need to be good 1/3 of the time. I don't think either folding or shoving is a big mistake, but I think getting it all in is slightly better (not to mention I <3 variance).

[dpis]

much more often? i seriously, respectfully, doubt that. and i never said he most likely has nothing. HE thinks a-x is the NUTS, and that this line of betting is clever. But he's wrong, its donkish and we're going to take his money when we put him in, or hes going to fold when we try to put him in

[Profish2285]

You have absolutely no reason to believe he thinks a-x is the nuts, and his stats, altho a very small sample, suggest quite the opposite actually. And yes, he will show up with a better hand much more often, look it up, its called baluga theorem. But if you dont want to follow that advice, then just call villains when they take this line about 20 times, and take a note each one. See how many times you are ahead vs villain being ahead and you will have your answer. The only thing that makes this situation even remotely close is because he has 60 bb's to start. If he had 100 then this is an insta muck. So like I said before, if 50 bb's makes our hand much stronger, then what is the cut off? Until I find out what that cut off is, my hand hits the muck.

[Shattered]

[ QUOTE ]
You have absolutely no reason to believe he thinks a-x is the nuts

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Actually, I think the fact that villain is an unknown at 25 NL sitting with 60BB points very heavily towards him thinking Ax is the nuts.

[Profish2285]

His stats show he is passive, but yet you label him as aggro, why, because he bought in short? Thats the only thing youre going by, that hes short. Give me something else to follow that makes me believe villain plays like that and I could change my mind, but all I keep seeing is 60 bb's. If 60 is the cutoff, then so be it, I will adjust accordingly, but no one has said anything like that, just villain is short so a-x equals nuts. Villain has taken a very strong line here but we seem to be giving no respect to it at all. One more time, if 60 is the cut off, then thats what it is. But thats purely on a math basis, so if someone who is good with the math aspect wants to take a stab, then go for it.

[Shattered]

His stats mean basically nothing after 20 hands. I'm going by the fact that he's an unknown at 25 NL sitting in short, and as a general rule they're very very bad. The limited stats make it look better but they really don't mean much.

The only concrete math aspect in this hand is that you're getting 2:1 on your money if you push it all in. After that you have to assign a range to villain's hand, which is very subjective. You obviously don't want to put random Ax into a short unknown's range so that makes this a fold; I think that they show up with AJ or worse at least a third of the time, so I call (that doesn't actually translate perfectly into equity, but you get the point).

[Profish2285]

As a rule, everyone at NL25 is really really bad, that doesnt make them maniacs. I believe your train of thought here is incorrect. What we have to figure out here is one thing, if we are stating that AJ is in villains range, does that justify a call given all of the other hands in his range that dominate us? Thats the math problem, not the odds we are getting, the odds are pretty simple to figure out here. The other thing is, its not like villain is sitting on 20 bb's. If he was sitting on that short of a stack, I will agree with you that a-x equals the nuts. However, hes sitting on a stack thats more than half the max buy in. All I want to know is what the cut off is in terms of bb's that makes our hand stronger or weaker honestly. If villain has $20 to start, I am assuming youre mucking here, or at least hoping you are. At 12.50 this is a push, so where is the break even point?