Badugi Dilemma

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
TT you are not understanding the problem

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right, I missed the obvious in the question. Without accounting for dead outs:

Villain has 7 outs to beat hero if hero keeps the Q, he is likely 5.9:1 against improving to a winning hand.

If hero breaks both hero and villain have equal odds to make any Badugi - 2:1 against.

When the villain catches a Badugi then the hero is naturally drawing cleaner, but at worst this usually means the hero is around a 10% equity dog (9:1 against), at best with 10 outs the hero might be a 21% dog (3.9:1 against).


So 44% of the time when the hero breaks the villain will make a Badugi and the hero won't. 83% of the time the villain will fail to make a better Badugi if the hero stands pat with his Q. Then there is the factor of how often when both hero and villain make a Badugi that the hero's Badugi will be better (thats a bit to heavy for me, I need help with that).

All in all it looks like standing pat is still the best option but I'd prefer that someone checks my math before its the definitive answer because I am rusty.