Top pair WK gets a hard bet on the river

iheartponeez · #1 10-30-2007, 06:22 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($39.65)
Button ($33)
Hero ($25)
BB ($16.50)
UTG ($26.35)
MP ($23.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, CO :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks, Villain bets $1.25, Button folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds, MP folds.

Turn: ($3.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $1.5, Hero calls $1.50.

River: ($6.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $5

Villain is 83/10/2.75 only over 10 hands. I figure this bet means he hit 2 pair, but it's definitely not beyond him to just bluff (I watched him call down with nothing but 8 high on a 446 board, only to hit his 8 and beat a 77 on the river).

Do you call or fold? Is it just read dependent?

whyzze · #2 10-30-2007, 06:30 AM

with an 83/10 at my table, I'm leading this flop. You have a medium ace...he is calling with the slightest piece of hte board. Definately bet.

Arguments for c/c are definatelyu there. After you do it and the pot gets HU. Time to lead turn. And then lead river.

iheartponeez · #3 10-30-2007, 06:32 AM

Well, I'm not sure how accurate those stats are, since it's a limited sample. Why do I lead? Is playing a big pot dangerous here? If I get raised, do I drop it immediately?

Also, when I see stats like these I need to give him a wide range. Does that mean I ought to take top pair to the bank with him, and let go at any resistance? What about on paired boards and other scary looks?

whyzze · #4 10-30-2007, 06:37 AM

you are leading for value and to set the price. of course if he raises its time to dump. There are more worse acess than better ones and the better ones aren't very likely because of the limp.

kroeliewoelie · #5 10-30-2007, 07:00 AM

I agree with whyzze about postflop.

What about preflop whyzze? Do you complete here? Or do you raise? What if it was ATo?

whyzze · #6 10-30-2007, 07:18 AM

preflop isn't a big deal. Theres no problem with playing it passive preflop. It depends alot on the players who have limped and their limp calling range.

iheartponeez · #7 10-30-2007, 07:19 AM

I didn't raise preflop because I'm really loathe to play A10 OOP.

Sanderrp · #8 10-30-2007, 07:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise preflop because I'm really loathe to play A10 OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you hate playing AT OOP, why are you playing it OOP?

iheartponeez · #9 10-30-2007, 07:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't raise preflop because I'm really loathe to play A10 OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you hate playing AT OOP, why are you playing it OOP?

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean I hate to play it OOP for a bigger pot, since if anyone calls my raise I have to be wary that they have an Ace better than AT.

Plus it has flush value preflop, so I want to see the flop with it. And a lot of uNL fish will limp with suited rags and go crazy if they hit a flush, which means big money.

Basically, I'm willing to complete with it, since it has big implied odds, but I think that if I raise, I make those implied odds reverse on me.

Bad logic?

Sanderrp · #10 10-30-2007, 09:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I mean I hate to play it OOP for a bigger pot, since if anyone calls my raise I have to be wary that they have an Ace better than AT.

Plus it has flush value preflop, so I want to see the flop with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of the 'but it's sooooooted' line.
Suitedness does not mean you need to see a flop with it. There's nothing wrong with folding ATs UTG.

[ QUOTE ]

And a lot of uNL fish will limp with suited rags and go crazy if they hit a flush, which means big money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Flush over flush is so horrendously uncommon that gunning for that isn't going to make your implied odds very hot.
For flush over flush to happen someone needs to have two cards of the same suit, and 3 cards of the same suit need to come out on board. This does not happen with any form of regularity.

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, I'm willing to complete with it, since it has big implied odds, but I think that if I raise, I make those implied odds reverse on me.

Bad logic?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes. You're OOP, making extracting value when you hit big difficult. You'll often play limped pots, making extracting value even more difficult and effectively you're only going to get lots of value when you hit cooler situations in which you're going to be drawing at the bad end of the stick as well sometimes.
Also, you're going to be folding the best hand quite often postflop, and put in too much money when you do flop an A because you're not going to have any clue what kind of hand villain has.
Effectively, you're playing the same 'make a hand' game everyone at uNL is playing, except you're in the worst possible position.

Now, this all isn't absolutely terrible at uNL because people are horrible, but getting into the 'raise or fold' frame of mind, specifically at 6-max, is a very good thing as you move up.

I suggest that if you have Pokertracker or a similar analysis program, you look at the average value you're getting from suited aces UTG the way you're playing them. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that suited aces UTG were losing hands for you.