NL400 AK vs. Passive 3 bet!

[mce86]

After 265 hands, villian has raised only 3 hands! His Agrr is 1.21!
Does he bet QQ here on the river? This has to be KK,JJ, or AA right? I feel like less of a man after this hand.
Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $389
MP1: $422.90
MP2: $421.90
CO: $657.50
BTN: $398
SB: $716.55
BB: $463
UTG: $435.40
Hero (UTG+1): $311.45

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12</font>, UTG+2 calls $12, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $40</font>, 5 folds, Hero calls $28, UTG+2 calls $28

Flop: ($126) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks

Turn: ($126) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $40</font>, Hero calls $40, UTG+2 folds

River: ($206) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $65</font>, Hero ?

[GT30]

3 hands out of 265 ! he has AA or KK, insta fold!

[holdem2000]

[ QUOTE ]
3 hands out of 265 ! he has AA or KK, insta fold!

[/ QUOTE ]

So most of the time a player has raised only 3 hands out of 265 they really raise more than 1% of hands normally but just raised less in this sample (see Mathematics of Poker for an example about something like this, the example is about winrates). Of course they're still not raising very much, and I'd guess the 3-bet is AA/KK (judging by flop play I'd guess AA and the turn makes me more sure about this).

[Mr_Donktastic]

265 hands ain't [censored].

Call the god damn rvr.

If this guy is bad enough to play JJ, KK or AA this way then at least now you know for a relatively cheap price.

[Altec]

Why wouldn't you bet the flop?

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww...call the river. Way to thin of a raise. If you are thinking about folding then wtf?

[Kos13]

Call LDO.

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you? Best case scenario, you are chopping. And that is the very best case. And people with 3/265 raising don't 3/bet AK (although they do raise AK on occasion).