13 Left, do I shove it in or find a better spot?

[Tilter]

UTG was weak, limping a lot and folding to raises
UTG+1 was new to table, figured AA KK QQ is likely out of his range, have JJ (sometimes) but more likely 66-TT + Overs (maybe even A9 if hes sick).

BUT 13 left, I have a top 4 chip stack. Find a better spot or just move em in?

PokerStars Game #12923832541: Tournament #65233765, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (3000/6000) - 2007/10/29 - 18:20:25 (ET)
Table '65233765 40' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: 1stAir (191956 in chips)
Seat 3: Tilter (182545 in chips)
Seat 4: mrblissed (194248 in chips)
Seat 5: notagoodplyr (95948 in chips)
Seat 6: putnomagico (55324 in chips)
Seat 7: Clayshooter1 (197524 in chips)
Seat 8: Pokerrick22 (92629 in chips)
1stAir: posts the ante 600
Tilter: posts the ante 600
mrblissed: posts the ante 600
notagoodplyr: posts the ante 600
putnomagico: posts the ante 600
Clayshooter1: posts the ante 600
Pokerrick22: posts the ante 600
notagoodplyr: posts small blind 3000
putnomagico: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Tilter [9d 9h]
Clayshooter1: calls 6000
Pokerrick22: raises 86029 to 92029 and is all-in
1stAir: folds
Tilter: <font color="yellow"> raises 89916 to 181945 and is all-in
mrblissed: raises 11703 to 193648 and is all-in
notagoodplyr: folds
putnomagico: folds
Clayshooter1: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ks 7s 8c]
mrblissed said, "nh"
*** TURN *** [Ks 7s 8c] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [Ks 7s 8c 3d] [2s]
1stAir said, "nh"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Tilter: shows [9d 9h] (a pair of Nines)
mrblissed: shows [As Kd] (a pair of Kings)
Pokerrick22 said, "nh"
mrblissed said, "thx"
mrblissed collected 179832 from side pot
Pokerrick22: shows [Qh Kh] (a pair of Kings - lower kicker)
Tilter said, "gg nh"
1stAir said, "nice pot"
mrblissed collected 295287 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 475119 Main pot 295287. Side pot 179832. | Rake 0
Board [Ks 7s 8c 3d 2s]
Seat 1: 1stAir folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Tilter showed [9d 9h] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 4: mrblissed (button) showed [As Kd] and won (475119) with a pair of Kings
Seat 5: notagoodplyr (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: putnomagico (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Clayshooter1 folded before Flop
Seat 8: Pokerrick22 showed [Qh Kh] and lost with a pair of Kings
</font>

[JSmith2007]

Fold..you dont HAVE to push here at all with 30BBs. UTG limp and UTG+1 pushing is an easy fold with 99 here.

Definitely find a better spot.

[hamnegger]

that ai doesnt seem too strong. i can see playing this all either way. i think you can find a better spot though bc someone may wake up w the nuts behind you. if i was blinds id shove here i fold but you are prob ahead

[Seventh_Street]

Fold, you can find a better spot than calling an UTG+1 push with 99 for 50% of your stack with 4 people left to act behind you. I think hes doing this easily with 77-TT and A9s+. Why risk taking a big flip or being a 4-1 dog so close to the FT with a healthy stack?

[Tilter]

Yeah, after rethinking I think there may have been a better spot with 30 BB. Being 30 BB deep is usually outrageous in tourneys.

Lesson learned, what hand do you guys think would me more optimal to make this play with. QQ+ AK? would you include JJ or AQ into this range?

[Dunkman]

Oh the yellow it burns....

edit: oops, I thought you were the first guy that shove...hmm...that changes things considerably...

I'd really consider folding honestly, I mean the UTG limp is probably junk, but occasionally not, and the guy shoving is definitely something, maybe an underpair or 2, a few overpairs, and a lot of overcards, but you're probably only slightly better than flipping against his range, and that's being generous. Add to that the guys left to act and I think this isn't quite enough to move with. I'm definitely getting it in here with JJ.

edit: read the results, wow, that turned out about as well as it possibly could have, stupid overcards

[gimmetheloot]

OMFG GUYS ARE U SERIOUS TELLING HIM TO FOLD?

1) 7 handed
2) UTG limp

[captainzodiac]

not the worst play,next blind increase leaves everyone with 15 or less bb,this will be a race most times,once in a while you'll have overpair/underpair.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
OMFG GUYS ARE U SERIOUS TELLING HIM TO FOLD?

1) 7 handed
2) UTG limp

[/ QUOTE ]

You misread it like I did, there's an UTG limp and then another guy that shoved 15 BBs before the action gets to hero, and there's 5 people left to act behind hero (hero's action is in yellow.)

[McMelchior]

I think your range is unrealisticly optimistic, but still:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
49.676% 48.95% 00.73% 79623070 1183932.00 { 9c9d }
Hand 1:
50.324% 49.60% 00.73% 80677946 1183932.00 { QQ-88, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }

So basically a coin flip with the pot offering 1.2:1.

You're losing a tiny bit of equity because you're not closing the action, but at least only one out of the 3 players remaining to act has you (barely) covered. And once in a blue moon the pusher and (for instance) the BB will both have AK, and you're in great shape.

If you fold you'll have 30 BB and be in good shape to make the FT - where you'll be duking it out a number of other similar stacks, and be vulnerable to pushes from short stacks.

If you lose you'll still have 15 BB, still represent a threat to all other players on your table, and you'll very much still be in the running.

If you win you'll have 48BB - pretty much a guaranteed FT seat with lots of wiggle room and a good chance of making the top 3.

Bottom line: Unless you feel you have a very substantial skill advantage over the other players I think you have to take this gamble in order to maximize your chances of making a big score.