NL 50$ - Vilain's min raise turn OOP ! ?

[King_Arthuro]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($49.20)
SB ($50)
BB ($32.55)
UTG ($19.50)
MP ($29.65)
CO ($85.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 7.
[color=#666666]3 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $2</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB raises to $5.5</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($11.50) 9, 6, 5 [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]SB bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($19.50) 5 [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
SB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $9.5</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB raises to $19</font>

I had Vilain at 22/12 from a small - 50/60 - sample of hands.

I think vilain could do that with a monster, flush draw, overpair ... Did he do this with only high cards ?

Do you call and reevaluate the river, fold, shove ? Does a shove make him fold his overpaire hand ?
Is there any value in a flop raise ?
Thx

[TTStrangler]

Without a history of Villain 3betting, I'm just calling the 3bet for set value (this could be bad, let's see what others say, you were in prime stealing position), Villain has a full stack so I think you have the IO to do so.

Villains flop bet was so small I don't see how we can fold to that with a GS now too.

I would just check behind on the turn, seems like he may not have anything, may induce a river bluff.

I'll call a small bet on the river, doubt I would call a strong PSB though. As played, pretty easy fold IMO.

[kroeliewoelie]

Calling for set value is out of the question. You need to make like 11.6 times your initial investment on average to break even. 11.6*3.5 = 40 dollars. No way this is gonna happen. So if you aren't planning to do fancy +EV stuff postflop, fold preflop.

Postflop is difficult. I imagine most people do not 3bet with small pocket pairs, but mainly high cards. That rules out sets/straightdraws. Leaves flushdraws and overpairs. His flopbet looks weak, but so does your turnbet. I am guessing he has an overpair here. That means you have 6 outs. That's like 6*2%=12 equity or 7:1. The pot odds are 5:1. That means you need to make like 20 dollars on the river if you hit to break even. Since he has only 25 dollars left and might shut down due to the obvious straight, I think this is a fold.

[King_Arthuro]

What about a turn big bet / call shove ? Did he release his overpair QQ+ ? perhaps not if he thought I could do this with TT-QQ ...

Well, a turn check seems in order.

Thx for answers

[TTStrangler]

[ QUOTE ]
Does a shove make him fold his overpaire hand ?

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did he release his overpair QQ+ ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not in a million light years are you going to make your average 50NL Villain fold an overpair here.

BTW, I agree with kroeliewoelie's solid math based advice, fold pre flop.

[rakes.a.beach]

your converter doesn't work.

I'd have bet more. as played, I'd fold

[ama0330]

Fold preflop.

As played, I think the flop call is probably OK but I fold the turn.

[oh well...]

Fold pre, save yourself the headache. As played I'd check behind on turn hoping for a cheap showdown if possible.

[Hail Eris]

Check behind, spike your 6-outer. Fold to the minraise as played.

And wtf at folding PF. His 3bet is small, we have position, he has tagfish stats and a full stack.