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#31
10-25-2007, 04:30 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
So, like -400 against NE going 16-0 is good, right? [/ QUOTE ] If you believe DVOA to be accurate then I would say yes. Everything on that site seems to look accurate to me. Seems to be the most credible site I have seen. Also, I see there is another thread on this but DVAO have the odds of Miami going 0-16 at 1.0%. St. Louis is listed at 1.2%. That means there is a better chance either NE or Indy goes undefeated than Miami or St Louis going winless. *Didn't mean to hijack this thread.... 
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#32
10-25-2007, 05:38 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I see there is another thread on this but DVAO have the odds of Miami going 0-16 at 1.0%. St. Louis is listed at 1.2%. That means there is a better chance either NE or Indy goes undefeated than Miami or St Louis going winless. [/ QUOTE ] LDO
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#33
10-28-2007, 06:58 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So, like -400 against NE going 16-0 is good, right? [/ QUOTE ] If you believe DVOA to be accurate then I would say yes. Everything on that site seems to look accurate to me. Seems to be the most credible site I have seen. Also, I see there is another thread on this but DVAO have the odds of Miami going 0-16 at 1.0%. St. Louis is listed at 1.2%. That means there is a better chance either NE or Indy goes undefeated than Miami or St Louis going winless. *Didn't mean to hijack this thread.... [/ QUOTE ] sorry for continuing the hijack but this calculation doesnt take inot effect that NE may just rest everyone in the last 2-3 weeks. They aren't guaranteed to do that, based on all the "[censored] you world" touchdowns they insist on scoring, but i'd say they do it a large percentage of the time. Which a number crunching program doesn't account for. I really like these types of analysis, but they are more prone to certain types of obvious errors about assumptions (like NE continues to start starters).
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#34
10-28-2007, 09:34 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
sorry for continuing the hijack but this calculation doesnt take inot effect that NE may just rest everyone in the last 2-3 weeks. [/ QUOTE ] There is absolutely no guarantee of that. They may only be able to rest everyone week 16 if they beat the Colts and then the Colts keep pace with them. - C -
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#37
10-29-2007, 09:44 AM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] sorry for continuing the hijack but this calculation doesnt take inot effect that NE may just rest everyone in the last 2-3 weeks. [/ QUOTE ] There is absolutely no guarantee of that. They may only be able to rest everyone week 16 if they beat the Colts and then the Colts keep pace with them. - C - [/ QUOTE ] He didn't say there was a guarantee, just that the system didn't account for that possibility. 105,802 and counting.
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#38
10-29-2007, 12:56 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
I saw they opened -1 on Pinny last night vs. Seattle. I like that. [/ QUOTE ] I'm actually surprised they only opened -1. I booked -1.5, and think the line should be 3 or maybe even 3.5. Seattle's been solid, but they got thrashed @ Pitt and Clev has looked pretty good. If Clev wins this game, they'll be 5-3 and should start getting a little respect. I'm really not sure why they aren't though. That defense isn't very good of course, but the offense is flat out awesome. Keep in mind this is the team that's played the Pats - in NE - the toughest so far. The Pats needed a fumble-6 with just under a minute to play to cover the spread...Clev was driving down 10 with 40ish seconds. - C -
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#39
10-29-2007, 12:58 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
PS - This is a big weekend for this bet. Balt has historically played Pitt tougher in Pitt (and vice versa Pitt in Balt). If the Ravens manage to pull off an upset, and the Browns beat Seattle, everyone's 5-3 at the top and this one goes through the roof.
- C -
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#40
10-29-2007, 06:15 PM
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Re: Clev to win AFCN
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] sorry for continuing the hijack but this calculation doesnt take inot effect that NE MAY just rest everyone in the last 2-3 weeks. [/ QUOTE ] There is absolutely no guarantee of that. They may only be able to rest everyone week 16 if they beat the Colts and then the Colts keep pace with them. - C - [/ QUOTE ]
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