200PLO AA+ flush draw bet or check turn?

Vinetou · #1 10-28-2007, 07:01 AM

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($205.25)
Hero ($200.25)
CO ($106.65)
Button ($114)
SB ($198)
BB ($254.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 4 folds, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($21) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $19.95, UTG calls $19.95.

Turn: ($60.90) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $57.95, UTG raises to $176.3, Hero calls $113.35 (All-In).

Is this a standard or maniacal play? Just joined, so I don't have any reads on a villain.

2handed · #2 10-28-2007, 07:48 AM

Standard given the stacks. If you KNOW he is a nit then maybe check, but that is pretty rare. The fact that you picked up a gutshot helps a bit, and the is board is pretty draw heavy. He could have a variety of draws here, so I usually bet. Checking behind isnt terrible, but you gotta think most players are checkraising toptwo or a set.

My best guess to his hand here is that he has something like both flushdraws and a pair, or two spades and a wrap, some really strong semibluffing hand. Or he called with a medium draw on the flop and spiked two pair.

2handed · #3 10-28-2007, 07:49 AM

I meant to say you gotta think most players are checkraising top two or a set on the flop.

2handed · #4 10-28-2007, 08:49 PM

Is anyone typically checking behind on the turn in this spot?

BountyKilla · #5 10-28-2007, 08:50 PM

im checking behind on turn for sure, and once he c/r you all in on turn I fold.

Big Dave D · #6 10-28-2007, 09:06 PM

Against the range of hands he has on the turn, you now have to call. PLO sucks. Knowing your foe helps as to whether you should bet the turn or not. Some guys will wait to cr top two or a set here, others are just donk calling and need the second barrell. If you check the turn you have to be prepared to call *a lot* of hands on the river.

gl

bdd

2handed · #7 10-28-2007, 09:08 PM

Yeh I was thinking about this spot again today and it seems like checking behind has some merit. But I just don't put him on a big hand after he smooth calls flop.

I guess we need to weigh the value of protecting our hand and getting calls from a worse drawing hand versus the value we lose when we got checkraised off it or committed by a set, or when we give a free card and he gets there. By not betting the turn we are setting ourselves up for a hard, but not necessarily unprofitable river decision. On a card that pairs the board we probably call a small to medium size bet, other cards like a red queen we may have to just lay it down to any bet.

Since we have 11 good outs against a dry set (2 aces, 7 clubs 2 3s) taking a free card isnt so bad since we are not in good shape against a set on the turn. We are in decent shape against a 2pair hand like K5xy since board pairing can give us a scoop too, but still a significant dawg.

What makes this tricky for me however is the line villain took. The call/flop, checkraise/turn does not scream set too me, making me weight combo draws more highly, it just feels like it may be a big semibluff, but I may be ascribing him more moxy than an unknown should be given out of curiosity over what he played this way.

Big Dave D · #8 10-28-2007, 09:15 PM

I'm too tired to crunch the numbers but I would be very surprised if this was a pass for the CR. Many times your middle pin str8 will be good and he will have two pair in there a lot too. Sometimes, not often, but significantly, you will be in front.

gl

bdd

OrrLives · #9 10-28-2007, 11:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
im checking behind on turn for sure, and once he c/r you all in on turn I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is horrible after hero gets checkraised.

Hero is getting (60.90+57.95+176.30) to 113.35, or ~2.6 to 1. (NOTE: I was lazy and just assumed that every dollar villain bet into the pot could be won by hero.)

Hero needs ~0.28 equity to call. Against a reasonable range of hands it is a clear call. Hero might even be ahead here.

Worst case scenario: Villain has oesd, set, flush draw. This is a clear fold.

Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Js 5s Kc 4c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 9c Ad 2d 8 20.00 32 80.00 0 0.00 0.200
Ks Ts Qc Kh 32 80.00 8 20.00 0 0.00 0.800

Villain has top two pair, oesd. This is a clear call.

Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Js 5s Kc 4c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 9c Ad 2d 16 40.00 24 60.00 0 0.00 0.400
Ts Qd Kh Jh 24 60.00 16 40.00 0 0.00 0.600

Villain has set only. This is clear call.
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Js 5s Kc 4c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 9c Ad 2d 12 30.00 28 70.00 0 0.00 0.300
8s Kd Kh Qh 28 70.00 12 30.00 0 0.00 0.700

Villain has top two pair, two flush draw. This is a clear call.
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Js 5s Kc 4c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 9c Ad 2d 14 35.00 26 65.00 0 0.00 0.350
Ks 9s Jc 8c 26 65.00 14 35.00 0 0.00 0.650

sqwisssssss · #10 10-29-2007, 03:17 AM

no, you did fine. you have to call once he check raised you. if villan has a hand that beats yours, he played it really weird. something tells me villan picked up 9 more outs on the turn.

i dont like checking behind on turn. villan didnt check raise the flop with a very drawy board so why would i want to give a free card on the turn? my hand in this spot is more than likely good. if not, i now have equity with outs. i gladly call off.