NL25 AK river is wtF?

[ronitonline]

I know, normally when the noobs hit their [censored] they bet pot or shove or overbet or something a little more regular non-std if you get what im saying.
fwiw this was an instant bet.

[SoMarginal]

heh....I think we're beat almost 100% of the time here. I used to have a big leak here thinking that they had to be betting the river with a marginal holding...yeah right...I think that this honestly looks a lot like a slow played set, possibly A9 or A5. Either way calling here the way played would def be a losing play. Judging by his stats to he isn't going to be a player that is going to be making many reads on the flop (the weak continuation bet) and them taking those reads to later streets to bluff you out. Just my thoughts.

[ronitonline]

There are almost no draws, so I don't say this is a total bluff. I think villian could have something random though. He is 50/22 over a good sample afterall.

[ronitonline]

well thac i want to give you results since nobdoy relaly wanted to comment.
I call and villian had A9 which was semi-expected, but TBH I think vs his range + his bluffs this was atleast break-even if not +EV. Calling on this river vs a unknown is prob -EV but vs this villian I think its possible to be +EV.

[takingcontrol]

I doubt we're good 30% of the time on this river against this villain.
as played, fold.

[ronitonline]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt we're good 30% of the time on this river against this villain.
as played, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wtf are you talking about? If there is any correct villian to call here its this one. If you think this can never be a +EV spot then just say that, but you went out of your way to say "against this villian" which is a joke becuase if we're calling any player then its him.

[slush420]

if you have the ability to check aggression factor by street, that would be helpful. if his river aggression factor is higher than his overall AF this is a call. If it is same or less it's probably a fold.

I like the betsizing. You can usualy make smaller Cbets with an A on board, and people fold just fine. So I make the same size bet when I actualy have the A.

Looks like villain hit 2 pair on river. Fold, unless you have a read, that villain does some crazy river bluffs.

[ronitonline]

The only read we have is that villian is 50/22 and he is bad and shows up with wierd [censored], as most 50/22 players do.
bluffing reads we dont have, and river reads we don't either.
obv why this is a marginal spot,i didnt put it OP for some reason that he is 50/22 and thats what makes the river a lot more marginal IMO.

[Check_The_Nuts]

River is a fold. Even bad players like this don't take a line of check/call check/call bet as a bluff. Its just too hard for him to show up with air on that river.