*** Official Breeders' Cup Thread ***

[brianpower]

[ QUOTE ]
George Washington is a sick sick horse but i would think that being from Ireland and seeing him run previously. 20/1 odds for him are brilliant and they wouldn't be bringing him over if they didn't think he had a chance, but i'm no expert. He has had a few injuries though and i think and he hasn't performed at his best in a few races, but if he runs well he will go very very close. IMO value for money maybe an each way bet is best. Was 6th in breeders cup last year didn't run at his best i think. Has also won some of the major races over here obv

I have no clue about American Horse Racing but Dylan Thomas is a lock in the turf race thats all i know IF he performs, maybe 7/5 are the odds i seen i'm not sure. He's won the Irish derby, Arc de triomphe (biggest race in Europe), Irish champion stakes, came close in Epsom derby got a bad race and won the King George VI and Elizabeth stakes, he has a rating of 127 with the closest contender being at 117. Hasn't run in America yet i don't think so you never know and i hear the horse called English channel knows the course well so maybe that will be the forecast (1&2) in that race. He's considered as one of the great horses over here anyways and horse racing is very strong here in Ireland & UK. Probably would have been considered the best had he won the Epsom derby

My bets are: George Washington E/W & Dylan Thomas FTW

But as i say i know nothing about any of yer horses so don't listen to me lol just saying what i know about the Irish interest in the race

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree with most of this. I just hope they dont give either horse lasix (or whatever its called).

20/1 on George Washington is a ridiculous price, best price with the Ire/UK bookmakers is 10s, and I wouldn't put anyone off backing it at that.

Even money about Dylan Thomas is too short for me, he'd become a OK wager at 2s. On firm ground and given a fast pace he a has a devistating turn of foot that few can live with. He's just to quircky to bet at 1/1.

Come on the Irish!!!

[cefis21]

A lot of people are having Dylan as their single. I'm taking a little shot with English Channel(got 6-1 in the futures). I think it's his year. Loves Monmouth.

[Holybull]

[ QUOTE ]
George Washington is a sick sick horse but i would think that being from Ireland and seeing him run previously. 20/1 odds for him are brilliant and they wouldn't be bringing him over if they didn't think he had a chance, but i'm no expert. He has had a few injuries though and i think and he hasn't performed at his best in a few races, but if he runs well he will go very very close. IMO value for money maybe an each way bet is best. Was 6th in breeders cup last year didn't run at his best i think. Has also won some of the major races over here obv

I have no clue about American Horse Racing but Dylan Thomas is a lock in the turf race thats all i know IF he performs, maybe 7/5 are the odds i seen i'm not sure. He's won the Irish derby, Arc de triomphe (biggest race in Europe), Irish champion stakes, came close in Epsom derby got a bad race and won the King George VI and Elizabeth stakes, he has a rating of 127 with the closest contender being at 117. Hasn't run in America yet i don't think so you never know and i hear the horse called English channel knows the course well so maybe that will be the forecast (1&2) in that race. He's considered as one of the great horses over here anyways and horse racing is very strong here in Ireland & UK. Probably would have been considered the best had he won the Epsom derby

My bets are: George Washington E/W & Dylan Thomas FTW

But as i say i know nothing about any of yer horses so don't listen to me lol just saying what i know about the Irish interest in the race

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you know about Grand Couturier?

[TripleH68]

Race 6) Filly and Mare Turf

Nashoba's Key is 7-for-7, winning four of her last five by less than one length. The key is they have all been in California. Honey Ryder prefers firm turf.

The pick here is the 4 - Passage of Time.
This horse ran third last out in a very fast G1 race in France
Ramon Dominguez was selected as the rider because of his experience at Mth
Plenty of experience at the distance

Horses I like with her:

10 - Arravale
30-1 ML is too high. She has raced against the boys. Was a horse of the year in Canada in 2006

5 - Wait a While
Was fourth in this race last year

3 - Nashoba's Key

9 - Danzon
Will be running late and should like the going
Julien Leparoux

8 - Timarwa
She had a colic Monday morning and missed some feed. Trainer says she is looking a little light. Her last two were nice efforts in IRE

1 - All My Loving
Has burned a lot of money
Adds blinkers for O'Brien

[TripleH68]

Race 7) Sprint

You always need some luck in the sprint.

Baffert's horse 2 - Midnight Lute is working huge. He likes to settle in a little off the pace and then pounce. The likely favorite but that's who I like.

If betting the race, you might look for the 10 - Greg's Gold to miss the ticket. This horse is in GREAT FORM and should have won his last easily were it not for Espinoza getting him boxed in a five horse race!? Notice his last trip out of California didn't work out very well and his big races this year have all been on cushion/polytrack.

[TripleH68]

Race 8) Mile

This race looks very competitive. The turf course is a 7f oval and the obvious pick drew post 13. No horse has ever won from post 13 or 14, but it is not impossible. Note that there may be late scratches due to the condition of the course and that would move the favorite inside a bit.

This is a race that always seems to be very close and exciting. And there are a number of horses in here to avoid because they seem to prefer firm ground. Here are some ideas:

8 - Kip Deville
This is his distance
Trainer Dutrow thinks he is the one to beat
He beat Tagg's Showing Up at a mile last spring

13 - Excellent Art
Likely favorite for good reason

7 - Cosmonaut
Good form, good works, J Lep

10 - My Typhoon
I think this horse is dangerous shortening up for Mott
She is going against the boys, but could be big price

14 - Remarkable News
Must be respected, but also likes to fire out of gate and will need a good trip from outside post

9 - Nobiz Like Shobiz
Will get some play 3-for-3 on grass, but is facing older horses for the first time and all his wins have come on firm turf

[TripleH68]

Race 9) Distaff

If any dirt race sets up for a closer it is this one. Plenty of front end speed.

I like the 11 - Unbridled Belle.
Ramon is back riding
She is a big, tough filly who will love to run at 'em

Notice that 10 - Indian Vale is 6-for-7 at the distance.

Longshot: 9 - Teammate Allen Jerkens.

[TripleH68]

Race 10) Turf

Aidan O'Brien says 7 - Dylan Thomas is sharp as ever. He is considered the world's number one at this distance. The only thing of interest is that no Arc winner has ever won a Breeders Cup race, but that may just be one of those meaningless statistics.

6 - English Channel is very consistent, but I don't see how you can play him to win. If Dylan stayed in the starting gate I still wouldn't like EC to win.

2 - Red Rocks
Has only matured since winning this race last year

5 - Grand Couturier
In great form
Borel will be patient and could easily get a piece

3 - Better Talk Now
Hard not to root for the old man
Likely will not get the pace he needs

[TripleH68]

Race 11) Classic

For those of you who are fans of 8 - Hard Spun, you should know this will be his last race. It is sad to think it may be the last race for several others in the race as well.

Looks like a great race this year with 1 - Lawyer Ron and HS running together on the front. You should go with your gut on this one. I think the winner will be either 4 - Curlin or 3 - Any Given Saturday. Pletcher has pointed AGS to the Classic and truly believes he is a 1 1/4 horse.

I have heard 9 - Tiago would love the mud, but it is still hard to see him coming from off the pace against this field.

Discussion?

[Holybull]

Good Analysis TripleH. Here are my picks:

F/M Sprint:
La Traviata (5-2) to win.
Exactas with Oprah Winney (6-1)

Juvenile Turf:
Exacta box: Cherokee Triangle (10-1), Prusssian (3-1) and Texas Fever (30-1).

Dirt Mile:
Win and place on Park Avenue Ball (15-1). Savers with Discreet Cat (2-1)

Juvenile Fillies:
Proud Spell (5-1) to win and place. Large. Small bets on longshot Smarty Deb (30-1)

Juvenile:
Tough race. Exacta box Pyro (6-1), War Pass (5-2) and Wicked Style (10-1).

F/M Turf:
Wait a While (4-1) to win. Savers with Honey Rider (9-2), Argentina (12-1) and Passage of Time (7-2).

Sprint:
This is always a race that produces giant payouts. I really like Talent Search (15-1) to win and place.

Mile:
Excellent Art (3-1) and Remarkable News (12-1) were my picks until they drew the outside. Still not sure what to do.

Distaff:
Very competitive race. Ginger Punch (7-2) to win. Small.

Turf:
Taking a shot on Grand Couturier (10-1) to Win. Exacta box with Dylan Thomas (7-5).

Classic:
This should be a great race. Winner is most likely Horse of the Year. Curlin(3-1) is clearly the horse to beat. Medium win bets on him. Also Awesome Gem (30-1) to win and place.

Good luck!!