#1
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AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
These late / v. deep decisions give me trouble...
23 people left in the $10 20k tourney on Stars. Villain hasn't been stealing like crazy. Can I fold this? I fold I'm left with ~250k chips - about average, and 25 BB's If the answer is yes, I can fold - how small does my stack need to be for a fold to be out of the question? 150k? 100k? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10000 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Button (t88240) SB (t200986) BB (t759452) UTG (t117934) Hero (t286278) MP2 (t337451) CO (t498055) Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t40000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t280000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font> |
#2
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
i beat him into the pot nh
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#3
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
I wouldn't consider folding with 200K or less, since then I'd need <=40% equity to make the call. I'd call here as well.
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#4
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
with your read I can't see ever folding here
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#5
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks. Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read. Villains range (1010+, AK+) Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney. The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos. obtw Why the 4x raise? ~loose |
#6
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
raise less pf.
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#7
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks. Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read. Villains range (1010+, AK+) Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney. The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos. obtw Why the 4x raise? ~loose [/ QUOTE ] my bad...that's two i've misread...too tired I guess...must be why I keep losing all these races [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] fatigue! |
#8
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
what's wrong with a 4 X BB initial raise?
I vary my initial PF raise between 3 and 4 bb's in a pretty random fashion. This one happened to be 4. I thought that 4 X BB was the new 3... Am I wrong on that? OT |
#9
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
I think 2.5 is in vogue...raise less and do it more often...decide what to do it reraised on case by case
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#10
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
With 28 BBs effective, I'd make it 25K to go PF, but making is 40K really isn't that big of a deal.
As played, we have two options: 1) Call all-in. So, we simply need to calculate our equity against villain's hand range. Then figure out how much it costs us and if we are getting the right price (our remaining stack : our remaining stack + the money in the pot already). Or 2) Fold. Seems pretty easy to me. Just run the numbers. So...we have to call 246K to win 301K (1.22:1). So we need about 45% equity against his hand range (probably a little less b/c I don't know what the antes are and didn't include them). equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 25529440 7931059.00 { AsKd } Hand 1: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 25388298 7931059.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { AsKd } Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } So yeah, depending on his range, I'd say it's pretty close. With antes this might be a shove even if his range is JJ+,AK+. Sherman |
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