Problem with your book

[damaniac]

No we don't agree. Just because something is likely to occur over the long run AT SOME POINT has no bearing on whether any such event is more likely than average to occur in x period of time. For example, you might expect to see 10H in a row on average every 5000 flips or something (not the real amount). But just because you've gone 5000 flips without seeing it, HAS NO BEARING ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT HAPPENING soon thereafter. You have exactly the same P of it occuring as before.

[master_hellmuth]

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.


[/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU...

You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails.

Sound like a deal?

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Lol, we'll be sitting at that table for a long time. Plus I'm not saying its impossible for that coin to come up heads on the 20th flip, just more unlikely than tails. So 100:1 is a little steep. I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

[crunchy1]

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I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

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Can you show us the math that you used to calculate those odds?

[master_hellmuth]

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I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

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Can you show us the math that you used to calculate those odds?

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I never said I was a math genius. Thats why I'm reading books and trying to learn. I just estimated on the conservative side, since obviously I still want to give myself an edge.

[Alk3]

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I'd definitely give you like 1.5:1 or maybe even 2:1 though.

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Can you show us the math that you used to calculate those odds?

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I never said I was a math genius. Thats why I'm reading books and trying to learn. I just estimated on the conservative side, since obviously I still want to give myself an edge.

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I never said I was a math genius. POTD. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[crunchy1]

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I never said I was a math genius.

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Then stop [censored] arguing with people here who are! You're wrong - plain and simple.

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Thats why I'm reading books and trying to learn.

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Start learning here

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I just estimated on the conservative side, since obviously I still want to give myself an edge.

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Your "estimate" is not giving you an edge.

[Justin A]

I don't think anyone is really understanding what's going on here. When you play roulette, the key is to not bet on every spin! You only bet when past events say you'll have an edge betting a certain color or number or whatever.

The thing is, all the "math" types that graduate from universities and write books on the subject are all wrong. The problem is they don't have real casino experience. Unfortunately there's no literature on the real probability stuff. Not sure why.

[ChrisAJ]

Given enough attempts, master hellmuth, you will eventually walk through a brick wall.

[master_hellmuth]

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I don't think anyone is really understanding what's going on here. When you play roulette, the key is to not bet on every spin! You only bet when past events say you'll have an edge betting a certain color or number or whatever.

The thing is, all the "math" types that graduate from universities and write books on the subject are all wrong. The problem is they don't have real casino experience. Unfortunately there's no literature on the real probability stuff. Not sure why.

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Thank you, finally someone else who gets it. Of course, you can also bet on every number, but just raise your bets significantly when betting on the end of a streak (this will help avoid suspcicion by the casino). Thats just not true about there being no books on this subject though, in fact there are plenty. I read a good e-book on the topic a month or so ago. There are also plenty of hard copy books as well if you look in your local bookstore.

[GoldSlugger]

Say there are two roullette wheels. Wheel A has been spun 20 times and has come up red every time! Oddly enough, Wheel B has alternated red and black outcomes for it's 20 spins, and the 20th spin was black. Which wheel is more likely to hit black on it's 21st spin?