KK .10./.20 PS--fold river when best result is a chop?

[Smurph64]

To assume he has a diamond is not really wise because he could have two pair or he may have a straight. Not likely but possible.

If you check he now can bluff the turn or bet a weak diamond.

By betting the turn you have a greater chance he calls or folds combined than the chance he raises.

If he raises you have ten outs. If you call the turn it's unlikely he will think you have a full house on the river if the board pairs.

So you now have two options, check/raise or donk and hope he reraises with the nut flush.

The cost of the bet on the turn is more than likely going to be made back if you hit your draw.

If he calls the turn then and you miss the river then you don't have to bet or call its and easy c/f.

If you had AK on the turn then the turn would be bet/fold

So the reality is the turn bet has +EV more than it has -EV,

[Sushiglutton]

This spot is so sad that I refuse to reply [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

[MoonOrb]

Thanks everyone.

I've had a think about the turn play. I'm betting here now. I still don't think villain folds any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that fits his range and I don't think he folds a straight if he was holding QJ. And while I still think it's unlikely that he calls with a worse hand like 2 pair or a pair of tens or something, the reason I make this bet is that if he doesn't have a diamond and calls, I'm splitting the pot with him if the fifth diamond shows up. So I think my bet does have +EV here if he folds giving me the whole pot instead of a chop.

So my new line here is b/c turn and c/f river in the event I don't get the boat.