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#11
10-24-2007, 02:20 PM
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Re: Serious questions about 6max variance
[ QUOTE ]
no, i don't know your lifetime stuff, but it seems you most always post/hijack threads by posting beats, coolers, or hands where you played 'ftop perfect' and still lost, or talk about your crushing 100-200 bb downswings which none of us even think to comment on (in our own games) any more. didn't mean to call you delusional. [/ QUOTE ] And by threads you mean the NC thread? Isn't that what it is there for? My response was accurate and appropriate for the content of this post. I gave him my results over the last 120K hands or so to show him that his sample size is meaningless. I can't remember when I responded to a posted hand with a coolered hand of my own. I guess I'm a little annoying now in the NC thread because I'm running bad, but outside of that I try to just give advice based on the content of the post. Go ahead and site some examples though if you want to make me look bad. But seriously, I'm not here to annoy people. It's not my personality and if people want me to post less I can oblige. And no, not in a self-pitying way, in a "I should stick to more content oriented posts until I'm running better" way. 
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#13
10-24-2007, 02:27 PM
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Re: Serious questions about 6max variance
how have you done the other 10700 hands in you SH-history? I can't recall ever losing 7,7BB/100 hands for as long as 1300 hands and since you're new to the game I think you should do some analyzes of this session.
I don't think you could've turned this to a winning 1300 hands but I think that when you are new to the game you shouldn't just lean back and blame the massive loss on variance. Did you tilt or semitilt anytime during this session. Was there any player you lost especialy much to, did you have the right position at the table? Analyze, analyze and analyze again and post some hands if you get stuck. Good luck!
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#15
10-24-2007, 02:45 PM
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Re: Serious questions about 6max variance
With the risk of getting the same response as Absolution because I love to both whine about downswings and talk about winrates (especially mine).
From august to august 2006-2007 I had one 650 BB downswing and 2 or three dowswings of 300+ BB and I was still +1BB/100. From august to august 2005-2006 I had several 300+ BB swings and had a winrate of 1.7 BB/100 or so. The downswings are there to stay you have to get used to them. The trouble I´m having is to separate what is bad play and what is variance and to some degree you have to figure out which is which if you are going to be a winning poker player.
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#16
10-24-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: Serious questions about 6max variance
When loosing it's variance when winning you're a good player and even if you loose over a gazillion of hands there is always some statistical probability that you just have had the worst luck in history and you still are a winning player.
This is the kind of reasoning that makes bad players deposit again and again and again.
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#19
10-24-2007, 04:16 PM
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Re: Serious questions about 6max variance
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] absolution you are like the fgators of this forum [/ QUOTE ] them's fightin words around these parts [/ QUOTE ] I LOL'ed and got one of them "play less poker massage me more" looks
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#20
10-24-2007, 05:44 PM
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Re: Serious questions about 6max variance
isn't it time we finally all learned a little statistics so that we could properly evaluate a downswing or an upswing? if you are serious about poker, why not spend 20 minutes understanding variance so you know exactly how often to expect what kinds of swings. maybe we can add some info on that to the FAQ.
as an example, stdev for a solid (vpip around 25) tag: 15-16bb/100 so after 100 hands, 16% of the time you'll have more than a 16bb upswing 16% of the time you'll have more than a 16bb downswing 2.5% of the time you'll have more than a 32bb upswing 2.5% of the time you'll have more than a 32bb downswing (on top of your usual winrate) after 1600 hands, multiply all numbers by sqrt(1600/100)=4: 16% of the time you'll have more than a 64bb upswing 16% of the time you'll have more than a 64bb downswing 2.5% of the time you'll have more than a 128bb upswing 2.5% of the time you'll have more than a 128bb downswing if you are playing more like 33/23, your stdev is higher so all your up/down swings will be proportionally higher.
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