#1
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Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)
SB ($26.69) Hero ($25) UTG ($54.21) MP ($15.15) Button ($25.58) Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: ($0.62) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5</font>, Hero calls $2.50. Turn: ($10.62) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $7</font>, Hero wonders how he got himself into this mess. Villain is 19/8.4/1.55 after 700ish hands. Anyone folding to the flop min-3-bet? Do I have to fold on the turn? |
#2
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
Push here. I can't really seeing him having a better hand. If he had AK, KK, TT he would have raise preflop. If he happens to have AT you where just ment to loose that buyin.
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#3
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
Well the good news is he only completed the SB preflop, so his hand is more likely weaker. Unfortunately you can only hope for a split. I am thinking a fold is in order beacuse I don't want my whole stack in the middle hoping to split here.
Edit: We may have quite a few outs though. I still lean towards fold. |
#4
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
i dont fold here...
just call down, AT and AJ are the only hands that fit his action and have you beat... |
#5
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
[ QUOTE ]
i dont fold here... just call down, AT and AJ are the only hands that fit his action and have you beat... [/ QUOTE ] people get married to weak aces when they hit trips a lot, but now we are chopping with them, so calldown sounds good |
#6
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
If we call:
AJ - AT 24 combos we lose (20%) A9 - A2 96 combos we split (80%) We have invested $5 on the flop. On the turn I assume we will be all-in on the river. (Half pot river bet) So 20% of time we invest $20 and lose. 80% we invest $20 and win $5 (we/re calling to protect our portion of the current $10 pot). .2(-$20) + .8($5) = -4 + 4 = $0 EV If there is any chance he holds AQ, AK, KK, or TT it makes it -EV. I'm sure an argument can be made that he'd likely raise preflop with the better hands, AT+, TT, KK, but it's still going to be around 0 EV. I'd rather not risk my stack for an EV of 0. Anyone see any issue with this math? Edit: I see already I need to account for one less 7 and one less T, but otherwise this should be correct. |
#7
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
He could be bluffing...
Therefore i take the risk of AT-AQ. If he got any sort of K because he doesnt believe that we have an ace, we have him crushed. |
#8
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
By the way, notice his low pfr% after a 700 hand sample, dunno what a person like that raises from the SB.
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#9
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Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, notice his low pfr% after a 700 hand sample, dunno what a person like that raises from the SB. [/ QUOTE ] that's what i thought about, too, but AK is definitely in his range, and probably AQ. |
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