Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)

Babalatexi · #1 10-24-2007, 03:14 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)

SB ($26.69)
Hero ($25)
UTG ($54.21)
MP ($15.15)
Button ($25.58)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.62) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $0.5, Hero raises to $2.5, SB raises to $5, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($10.62) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero wonders how he got himself into this mess.

Villain is 19/8.4/1.55 after 700ish hands. Anyone folding to the flop min-3-bet? Do I have to fold on the turn?

BH2O · #2 10-24-2007, 03:25 PM

Push here. I can't really seeing him having a better hand. If he had AK, KK, TT he would have raise preflop. If he happens to have AT you where just ment to loose that buyin.

Genesis · #3 10-24-2007, 03:29 PM

Well the good news is he only completed the SB preflop, so his hand is more likely weaker. Unfortunately you can only hope for a split. I am thinking a fold is in order beacuse I don't want my whole stack in the middle hoping to split here.

Edit: We may have quite a few outs though. I still lean towards fold.

Spurious · #4 10-24-2007, 03:31 PM

i dont fold here...

just call down, AT and AJ are the only hands that fit his action and have you beat...

Micro Donk · #5 10-24-2007, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i dont fold here...

just call down, AT and AJ are the only hands that fit his action and have you beat...

[/ QUOTE ]

people get married to weak aces when they hit trips a lot, but now we are chopping with them, so calldown sounds good

Genesis · #6 10-24-2007, 03:44 PM

If we call:
AJ - AT 24 combos we lose (20%)
A9 - A2 96 combos we split (80%)

We have invested $5 on the flop.
On the turn I assume we will be all-in on the river. (Half pot river bet)

So 20% of time we invest $20 and lose.
80% we invest $20 and win $5 (we/re calling to protect our portion of the current $10 pot).

.2(-$20) + .8($5) = -4 + 4 = $0 EV

If there is any chance he holds AQ, AK, KK, or TT it makes it -EV. I'm sure an argument can be made that he'd likely raise preflop with the better hands, AT+, TT, KK, but it's still going to be around 0 EV. I'd rather not risk my stack for an EV of 0. Anyone see any issue with this math?

Edit: I see already I need to account for one less 7 and one less T, but otherwise this should be correct.

Spurious · #7 10-24-2007, 03:47 PM

He could be bluffing...
Therefore i take the risk of AT-AQ.
If he got any sort of K because he doesnt believe that we have an ace, we have him crushed.

Babalatexi · #8 10-24-2007, 04:07 PM

By the way, notice his low pfr% after a 700 hand sample, dunno what a person like that raises from the SB.

Spurious · #9 10-24-2007, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, notice his low pfr% after a 700 hand sample, dunno what a person like that raises from the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]
that's what i thought about, too, but AK is definitely in his range, and probably AQ.