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#1
10-24-2007, 12:41 AM
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Opinion polls vs polling day - The British experience
I'm not from The US, but I can't help noticing the huge internet following Ron Paul has and all the hatred thrown at Bush, but I suspect if there could be a vote between the 2, Bush would win.
The British Tory party were equally unpopular as Bush is now (for presidential system, read 'party' for 'president') leading up to the 1992 general election. Voters publicly claimed they would support Labour, but many of them actually sectretly voted Tory and hence there was a shock Tory victory. People voting Tory were seen to be selfish and a little old-fashioned, whereas Labour voters were portrayed as 'the good guys' thus people publicly supported Labour, but would never admit to voting for the Tories either to friends, or to an opinion pollster, despite being their intention. I think the same is true with the Ron Paul situation (and the Britsh press had a name for this which eludes me) 
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#2
10-24-2007, 12:46 AM
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Re: Opinion polls vs polling day - The British experience
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#4
10-24-2007, 01:27 AM
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Re: Opinion polls vs polling day - The British experience
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not from The US, but I can't help noticing the huge internet following Ron Paul has and all the hatred thrown at Bush, but I suspect if there could be a vote between the 2, Bush would win. The British Tory party were equally unpopular as Bush is now (for presidential system, read 'party' for 'president') leading up to the 1992 general election. Voters publicly claimed they would support Labour, but many of them actually sectretly voted Tory and hence there was a shock Tory victory. People voting Tory were seen to be selfish and a little old-fashioned, whereas Labour voters were portrayed as 'the good guys' thus people publicly supported Labour, but would never admit to voting for the Tories either to friends, or to an opinion pollster, despite being their intention. I think the same is true with the Ron Paul situation (and the Britsh press had a name for this which eludes me) [/ QUOTE ] I doubt it. THe number of people claiming dissatisfaction with bush is *huge* compared to the number of people claiming support for RP right now. It's not like every Bush basher is an automatic RP fan.
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#5
10-24-2007, 01:52 AM
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Re: Opinion polls vs polling day - The British experience
It is not clear to me what conclusion the OP is actually trying to draw here...are you saying that Paul's support is undercounted, or Bush's?
It seems to me that most Ron Paul supporters are much more public and vocal about their support than the average American.
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#6
10-24-2007, 11:01 AM
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Re: Opinion polls vs polling day - The British experience
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not from The US, but I can't help noticing the huge internet following Ron Paul has and all the hatred thrown at Bush, but I suspect if there could be a vote between the 2, Bush would win. [/ QUOTE ] Ron Paul has ZERO chance to win a Republican primary because his foreign policy views are unpopular and he would slash too many sacred political cows (even for Repubs). If Ron Paul ran as a Democrat vs Bush, I think Ron Paul MIGHT win for his get out of Iraq views. BUT....the Dems would NEVER nominate Rob Paul because he is for slashing their precious welfare state. [ QUOTE ] The British Tory party were equally unpopular as Bush is now leading up to the 1992 general election. [/ QUOTE ] The British Tory party has not had a decent leader since Maggie Thatcher. An unfriendly Btitish press does not help things either. In the USA, am Talk Radio has risen to challenge the liberal press and given voice to conservative voters. The liberal mainstream press has repreatedly attacked talk radio but instead of discrediting talk radio, talk radio has become more mainstream. You Brits desperately need an alternative media to that crappy BBC news... The Democrat Party party with some Republican turncoats tried to give all illegal immigrants amnesty (a paltry $5000 fine which was ZERO deterant), talk radio rallied the Republican party and shutdown the phone lines to the govt. These politicians were forced to place their tales between their legs and give up. They are trying another amnesty plan today (Wednesday).... [ QUOTE ] People voting Tory were seen to be selfish and a little old-fashioned, whereas Labour voters were portrayed as 'the good guys' thus people publicly supported Labour, but would never admit to voting for the Tories either to friends, or to an opinion pollster, despite being their intention. [/ QUOTE ] Then Tories need to grow a backbone. I'm proud of my political views....
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