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#1
10-23-2007, 01:13 AM
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$1/2: Value shove this terrible river?
SB in this hand is loose and a bit of a donkey. 36/9/2.4 over 80 hands. Preflop call is whatever -- usually I fold, but closing the action with a donkey on my left and a nitty MP1 opener I decided to gamble.
The river card sucks, but is it bad enough that I check behind, or do I shove for value? Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter Hero (BB): $200 UTG: $197 UTG+1: $174 UTG+2: $196 MP1: $211.65 MP2: $207.05 CO: $335.30 BTN: $213.10 SB: $193 Pre-Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB) 3 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $8</font>, MP2 calls $8, 2 folds, SB calls $7, Hero calls $6 Flop: ($32) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks Turn: ($32) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $18</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $54</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $36 River: ($140) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, Hero ...? 
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#2
10-23-2007, 01:19 AM
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Re: $1/2: Value shove this terrible river?
if hes donkish im shoving here. sucky river...but i think there is still value to b had against a donk.
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#4
10-23-2007, 05:37 AM
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Re: $1/2: Value shove this terrible river?
I don't get what value in shoving here...
Hero has $140 here, what hands will call $140 bet in $140 pot on river? Do you think AJ+ will call? But flushes and FH will turbo-call that. Cant see value in shove here. Maybe betting $40.
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#6
10-23-2007, 06:53 AM
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Re: $1/2: Value shove this terrible river?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't get what value in shoving here... [/ QUOTE ] Serious request to those who suggested shove: Please explain your thoughts. Thanks in advance.
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#8
10-23-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: $1/2: Value shove this terrible river?
Cliffs: I think the reasoning that he almost never has a flush (or better) is a lethal assumption on which to operate. There has to be something better here.
I'm still curious, so I will rant. The way I see it, a shove is only getting called by better hands. This isn't a heads up pot where you're getting a call [and beating] any two pair (and maybe AK/AQ), this is a 4 way pot where all 4 involved saw a turn card that brought a FD to a nice pot. Moreover, while only marginally relevant, the river paired the board in addition to the flush. A5/54 are definately included in range. I figure his range on turn call includes: AK/AQ/A9/A5/A4/76/54 and ANY two diamonds. I eliminated 99/55/44, because with his AF and board texture, I figure some form of r/r is coming here. (Is this an incorrect assumption - eliminating sets?) Also, AA is out b/c PFR% and general AF is high enough to expect a 3-bet OOP when not heads up. What hands are calling a shove? Any house (obv), ANY two diamonds, any 5x, but very few two pair. You mentioned yourself that this guy is kinda donkish, so you should assume he is capable of having any diamond hands. More interestingly, you should consider if he has any chance of folding two diamonds to a shove after the diamond that made his hand also paired the board. With your line, a flopped or turned set is definately a hand you are representing... So I ask again, really, shove for value?
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