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#11
01-03-2006, 04:18 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
It's the NFL. A large part of the game is luck. Often the direction a fumble bounces is worth 14 points.
Allow me to reword what I originally said: [ QUOTE ] It seems to me that if they are likely to cover the 8, then they certainly have a chance to win outright given a lucky bounce or 50-yard pass interference penalty... [/ QUOTE ] That is, when you're dealing with a spread as small as 8, it seems to me that it's somewhat contradictory to say that a team is likely to cover 8 but doesn't have a chance to win outright...but what do I know. 
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#12
01-03-2006, 04:20 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
[ QUOTE ]
What worries me about the Skins is their last game, playing to get into the playoffs. They didn't look too good against the Eagles, playing second-teamers who had to give them 6 turnovers (2 for TDs, if I rememember correctly). [/ QUOTE ] Meh, that really doesn't tell me anything considering the Skins were about the only winning team with a negative turnover ratio for a while. They really outplayed the Chiefs in KC, the Broncos in Denver and shot themselves in the foot both games. Plus, the refs hosed them in Tampa last time around. In any case, they certainly completed their sweep of Philly with greater ease than the Giants did.
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#14
01-03-2006, 04:46 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't really like these games either. I kinda like the Skins, but I'm worried that their bandwagon is filling up after I was driving it all by myself 3 weeks ago. Is it just me or do the Bucs suck at home? Seems like they've been just as good or better on the road under Gruden. [/ QUOTE ] What worries me about the Skins is their last game, playing to get into the playoffs. They didn't look too good against the Eagles, playing second-teamers who had to give them 6 turnovers (2 for TDs, if I rememember correctly). [/ QUOTE ] I wonder how healthy Brunell will be for this game. He was terrible against a pretty bad Eagles defense (9/25,141yds,1TD,1INT) who just the week before allowed Josh McCown to complete over 70% of his passes.
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#15
01-03-2006, 04:47 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
[ QUOTE ]
Often the direction a fumble bounces is worth 14 points. [/ QUOTE ] often? an INT thrown/fumble lost in the end zone and returned 100 yards the other way is a 14 point swing. otherwise, I don't know of any other 14 point swings, especially when you are talking about 2 teams with very good defenses. [ QUOTE ] when you're dealing with a spread as small as 8 [/ QUOTE ] 8 is small? [ QUOTE ] it seems to me that it's somewhat contradictory to say that a team is likely to cover 8 but doesn't have a chance to win outright [/ QUOTE ] when Al says 'likely', he's probably talking about a 55% chance of something occuring, or even less. and I don't think anybody said the Jags "don't have a chance to win outright". I'd be surprised if Jax can come north and win this game 7/10 times, but that is still a healthy chance. It would not surprise me at all if they covered.
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#16
01-03-2006, 04:50 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
I like Washington to do some damage. Unfortunately that seems to be a popular pick and we all know what that means.
Seriously, Washington and San Diego were the two teams in Playoff contention that had the toughest schedules. San Diego was unable to get through it but Washington made. They are more than ready to take the challenge we call the playoffs. We may see some big upsets this year as Seattle and Tampa Bay had the easiest schedules in the NFC with Chicago not far behind. In the AFC, Indy and Cincy had the easy schedules. Honestly, I like how Denver is sitting right now. For week one I like, NYG, Was, Jac, and Pit. I agree with Al in that in the second round the favorites usually roll but that may not be the case in the NFC for reasons I mentioned above. I fear it probably true in the AFC though even though that conference was probably deeper.
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#17
01-03-2006, 05:36 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't really like these games either. I kinda like the Skins, but I'm worried that their bandwagon is filling up after I was driving it all by myself 3 weeks ago. Is it just me or do the Bucs suck at home? Seems like they've been just as good or better on the road under Gruden. [/ QUOTE ] What worries me about the Skins is their last game, playing to get into the playoffs. They didn't look too good against the Eagles, playing second-teamers who had to give them 6 turnovers (2 for TDs, if I rememember correctly). [/ QUOTE ] Skins were getting killed that game, without 6 TOs and 2 returns for TDs, they lose that game by double-digits. This spread looks low to me. Naj
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#20
01-03-2006, 06:11 PM
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Re: My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs
[ QUOTE ]
I think both NFC East teams are overrated; I'm just not sure yet by how much. [/ QUOTE ] An arguement like this can be made for every team in the NFC... The Skins can play terrible or very well. The Panthers are like night/day. The Giants make too many mistakes. Seattle's schedule was a joke, so who knows. The Bears play well but havn't REALLY been tested yet. I havn't seen the Bucs much, but what I have seen of them hasn't impressed me too much. I read today the Bears played the 29th easiest schedule in the league. Don't quote me on that, that is what I saw on another website. That said, I think the Bears have been the most consistent team as of late and if I had to pick an NFC team they'd get my vote. I think anyone can make a case for every team in the NFC being both overrated and underrated, which is why those games are so hard to pick right now.
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